Think Tank Simulation Predicts ‘Heavy’ Losses on All Sides, Including US, If China Invades Taiwan

Horrific. The Biden Administration has decimated America’s deterrence and credibility. As such, China launching a military invasion against Taiwan is looking much more likely. Be prepared for the possibility of a major military conflict in Asia in the months ahead. Never would have happened under President Trump, when American deterrence was rock solid.

NEW: CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that a democratic, independent Taiwan endures in most scenarios. But the costs are enormous, write @csis_isp expert Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham.

Read the report: https://t.co/K4QfOmtLPl pic.twitter.com/Yuuyp0m0wE

— CSIS (@CSIS) January 9, 2023

Former Trump administration National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster says China's president is serious about his threats involving Taiwan: "Xi Jinping is preparing the Chinese people for war." pic.twitter.com/6wfOuhtG9x

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) January 1, 2023

We must prepare for war and assume it will occur soon because #China is getting ready to pull the trigger.

— Gordon G. Chang (@GordonGChang) January 11, 2023

With China, America faces a preparedness crisis https://t.co/5r4DUIjJmQ

— Michael Pillsbury (@mikepillsbury) January 10, 2023

Think tank simulation predicts ‘heavy’ losses on all sides, including US, if China invades Taiwan

By CSIS, Jan 11, 2023

A war games simulation of a full-scale Chinese invasion of the self-governing island nation of Taiwan predicts “heavy losses” for all parties likely to be involved, including the U.S. and Japan.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ran the simulation of a 2026 Chinese invasion of Taiwan exactly 24 times, drawing on historical data and operational research. The simulation’s events are included in an extensive report released Monday.

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VMS

1 year ago

China can afford the loss of 100K+ soldiers, but that may be an unpopular outcome, even for a communist government that has a stranglehold on its citizens. A better strategy would be for China to recognize Taiwan and open up full trade and tourism with its citizens.

And by the way, one does not have to be a “think tank” to realize that a Sino-American war would be devastating. We will prevail in such a conflict, but the cost on both sides will be great, with China taking the brunt of the conflict. Hopefully Xi is intelligent enough to see this, unlike the Emperor of Japan and his generals pre-WWII.

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fir1

1 year ago

Reply to  VMS

Not everyone in the Japanese military pre- WW 2 were all ” on board ” there were plenty of dissenters just as there were in the German armed forces.

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Snowedin

1 year ago

If America go to help Taiwan they will be compromised due to the diversification that has ruined our military.

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Jan Hellsund

1 year ago

No one mentions the 50 Yung Feng missiles that Taiwan presumably has targeted on the Three Gorges Dam (China’s Achilles Heel). Problem solved in about 20 minutes.

4

sally

1 year ago

we should let Taiwan go. it’s like the Ukraine…a hot bed of money laundering and child trafficing. We are just have to make our own chips from now on. BUT, our traitor government needs a war to hide all the theft of trillions of money and get our mind off the murders of millions with the covid shot.

0

czechlist

1 year ago

China covets Taiwan’s industry which requires infrastructure. An invasion would destroy much of both. I believe Russia has been cautious not to destroy too much infrastructute in Ukraine. Takes time and rubles to rebuild.
China could air and sea blockade and lay siege rather than invade. They are nearby and more easily supplied while Taiwan’s allies have thousands of miles of air and sea supply lines.
I will say the pre-mentioned three gorges dam gambit is intriguing but I expect China has plans to defend and deal with such an attack.
Let’s pray war can be avoided.

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fir1

1 year ago

ALL conflicts generate losses – that does’nt mean we should back away from standing up – That signature in the military starts to take on a whole new meaning.Ive known the feeling.

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