“All of this misery is a direct result of the policies of Biden and the Democrats in Congress. They have not been in charge for even two years now.”

But there are some economic indicators that have been reliable guides to political outcomes for half a century. Since the early 1970s, the “misery index” — the inflation rate added to the unemployment rate — has been uncanny in predicting the number of seats in Congress lost by the party in power.

“The Misery Index” is a reliable predictive model of the national mood and election prospects because it boils down all the fear, anger, worry, anger, etc. in the electorate into one, easy-to-read and understandable number.

‘America First’ vs. American carnage

Charlie Hurt writes, Trump vows to ‘rescue’ U.S. from Biden recession, rape, bloodshed

The case for former President Donald Trump has never been clearer.

American voters have been saddled with historic high gas prices and record inflation at home since he left office. War and ridicule abroad. An invasion at the border.

No matter how hard this White House tries spinning it, America is in a recession.

All of this misery is a direct result of the policies of President Biden and Democrats in Congress. They have not been in charge for even two years now.

The former president has a clear and recent record of handling all of these challenges to the great satisfaction of a majority of Americans. And now voters

Whatever else is on Americans’ minds — and that’s a long list right now — the state of the economy looms large in any US election. That spells big trouble for Democrats in November’s midterm vote.

A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting ballot outcomes — the misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects it forward through election day.

The result: Based on past voting patterns, President Joe Biden’s party can expect to lose 30 to 40 seats in the House and a few in the Senate too, easily wiping out razor-thin Democratic majorities. It’s why the Democrats are revving up the steal apparatus.

The misery index returns, with more still to come

By: Patrick Brethour, The Globe and Mail, August 1, 2022:

The misery index, that unhappy sum of inflation and unemployment rates, has surged to heights last seen three decades ago.

Sharply higher inflation is driving that rise, for now. But the misery index – which aims to distill down to a single number the economic pain caused by rising prices and job losses – is likely to go higher still in the coming months, as the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest-rate hikes start to weigh down the economy and push unemployment up from its historic low. Inflation, however, is likely to decline only gradually, with the central bank forecasting an average of 7.2 per cent this year.

With the exception of the whirlwind month of May, 2020, it’s been almost 30 years since the misery index has been this high, as the chart below shows. In late 1993, the index stood at 13.1, just ahead of the 13 recorded for June of this year and in May, 2020.

The misery index, that unhappy sum of inflation and unemployment rates, has surged to heights last seen three decades ago.

Sharply higher inflation is driving that rise, for now. But the misery index – which aims to distill down to a single number the economic pain caused by rising prices and job losses – is likely to go higher still in the coming months……

The Truth Must be Told

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