I’ve always been amazed, and a bit perplexed, by people who have five- or ten-year plans.
That’s not to say that I don’t have north star objectives: things centered around my values, hopes for my family and loved ones, and a broad set of professional aspirations.
But questions that get down to the next level of detail don’t work for me.
This is because I know what I don’t know about my future possibility set: the things that I can imagine today are a function of who and where I am today, and, if I keep making progress, my today view of what’s possible will be out of date in a year or two years’ time.
My mindset is fueled by the work of Stephen Johnson and the idea of “adjacent possible,” which is the core mental model for creating an innovative culture. The idea is that the possibility set — for everything from evolution to new ideas — is a function of the frontier of current available biology / best thinking. The things that are adjacent to that frontier are the ideas that are possible today; and as that frontier moves, new ideas are possible tomorrow.
Take the work of 60 Decibels: we have a set of capabilities, positioning in a number of markets, and big plans for what the future holds. But the future paths, while all fitting under a clear strategic umbrella, are many. If I knew for sure which one would be the one we’ll be walking, then I’d be a soothsayer.
Imagine, then, the paths we could take, all representing big possibilities, and then roll the tape forward two years: one or two of those paths is going to be successful, success will breed investment into new capabilities, which will create more success and more opportunities.
Something that looks like this (and yes, more than one branch from today could survive until tomorrow, that’s just harder to draw):
As I imagine that extending out for two or three years, it’s not a useful exercise to imagine the perfect mix of products, or markets, or offerings that we “ideally” will have—exactly because we are faced with so much opportunity.
I can see the big, long term goals, and I can make the best strategic choices with the information I have today. I can integrate that new information quickly, adapt and adjust. But I cannot see further than the distance my headlights shine.
Strong ideas, loosely held.