Will Egypt Again Be a Threat to Israel?

There are still Israelis who worry about a possible military threat to the Jewish state from Egypt, and continue to insist that returning the entire Sinai was a mistake. They point to the spectacular improvements in Egypt’s army, and wonder If the pro-Israel policies of the Egyptian government will survive the rule of General El-Sissi. A report by Oded Granot on why Israel need not, for now, be concerned with a threat from Egypt is here: “Fear and loathing in Sinai: Is Egypt a threat to Israel?: It’s true that in any future conflict with Egypt, if one were ever to erupt, the IDF will have to contend with a massive army equipped with modern, sophisticated weapons. At the current juncture, however, the clear and present dangers to Israel are from the north, not the south.” This article appeared in Israel Hayom on October 24, 2021:

In a few months, Egypt will mark 40 years since receiving the Sinai Peninsula back from Israel under the auspices of their peace treaty. Even then, similar to today, some in Israel occasionally argue that ceding the Sinai was a mistake that will cost us dearly one day when Egyptian army divisions cross the Suez Canal into the Sinai and attack Israel along the internationally recognized border.

“The Yom Kippur War taught us that we cannot disregard any warning signs, but the accumulated experience of the past 40 years hasn’t justified this concern: The border with Egypt, similar to the border with Jordan, has become tranquil from a security perspective, which has allowed the IDF to deploy very sparse forces to man those lines….

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Ever since signing the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, Egypt has scrupulously observed its terms, especially taking care not to move any of its military to the demilitarized area of the Sinai that had been declared off limits in the treaty. It is only recently, after Israel gave express permission for Egypt to move troops into the northern Sinai to fight the Jihadis – regrouped remnants of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, as well as Muslim Brotherhood operatives – that Egyptian troops have done so.

The demilitarization of the Sinai that was part of the 1979 Camp David Accords was intended to satisfy Israel’s security needs, but in recent years turned out to work against Israel. For without the large-scale presence of the Egyptian army in the northern Sinai, Jihadis found the Sinai a secure area from which to operate. Islamic State and Al Qaeda Jihadis turned the Sinai into a lawless region where they found it easy to operate, and while Egypt’s army was their main target, so, too, was Israel. Military aid was smuggled by Jihadi groups in the northern Sinai into Gaza through tunnels, for use by Hamas, which was (and is) part of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The other threat to rise against Israel from the south in the wake of Mubarak’s ouster was the ascent of the Muslim Brotherhood to power and the election of Mohammad Morsi as president. The friendly and ideological ties between Morsi and his camp and the Hamas echelon in Gaza, and the mutual visits between them, sparked considerable concern in Israel. These concerns were amplified even further when Morsi declared his intention to “re-examine” the military addendum to the peace treaty and deploy the Egyptian army to the Sinai.

Both these threats against Israel were erased by General Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, the youngest member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which had managed Egypt post-Mubarak. In the summer of 2013, el-Sissi kicked Morsi out of the presidential palace and outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood. The sigh of relief emanating from Jerusalem could be heard far and wide….

When Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, was elected as President of Egypt, he made clear he was prepared to violate the Camp David Accords and to deploy the Egyptian army to the Sinai, not to fight Jihadis, but to support them. He never got the chance, for General El-Sissi deposed Morsi in a military coup. El-Sissi also outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood; the Egyptian army continues to fight its operatives in Egypt proper and in the Sinai.

Egypt is the most populous Arab country, and has always been considered, and thought of itself, as the most important Arab state. Given the massive arms purchases by the rich Gulf Arabs, especially Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., it is not surprising that Egypt would want to keep up with its Persian Gulf neighbors in arming its military with “the best offensive weaponry from the West”; it’s a matter of perceived power and prestige.

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