Before coronavirus ravaged the state, New York was already facing a $6 billion budget shortfall caused, in part, by rising Medicaid costs. Now, the situation is much more dire. State spending could be slashed by as much as $10.1 billion in the wake of COVID-19, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced on Saturday night, drastically reducing funding for education, healthcare, transportation and many other facets of state government.

The proposed cuts to the $177 billion budget come as the statewide death toll from coronavirus surpasses 22,000, and tax revenue evaporates.

Of the $10.1 billion in cuts, outlined in a 463-page financial plan, $8.2 billion could come from “aid-to-localities” funds, which cover a vast array of resources for local governments across the state, including New York City.

Almost everything falls under this umbrella: public school budgets, CUNY and SUNY, Medicaid, mass transit, social services like foster care and substance abuse programs, and those involved in the pandemic response, including nurses and EMTs.

“The scope and depth of the reductions to local aid programs needed to balance the [Fiscal Year] 2021 Budget have no precedent in modern times,” reads the budget document, prepared by the state budget director, Robert Mujica. “In the absence of Federal aid, nearly every activity funded by state government in the aid to localities budget … will face steep cuts.”

Any of the cuts, the document said, can be mitigated during the fiscal year “if additional Federal aid is made available or revenues perform better than forecast.”

That last phrase is key: Cuomo could seek smaller cuts if direct federal aid to states impacted by coronavirus is authorized in the next round of stimulus spending. While Democrats and even President Donald Trump have embraced the idea, Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate majority leader, has been cooler to the concept of offering state bailouts. On Monday, however, McConnell expressed openness to state aid, as long as Congress limited the liabilities of healthcare workers, business owners and employees from coronavirus-related lawsuits.

For longtime budget watchers, Cuomo’s threat of devastating local cuts can be interpreted one of two ways: a real stab by a Democratic governor at longer-term austerity, or a way to build leverage with Washington.

“The governor is using the biggest figure that he can plausibly get near as a scare tactic to get money out of Washington,” argued E.J. McMahon, the founder and research director at the right-leaning Empire Center and a veteran budget analyst.

What won’t help Cuomo’s position with Washington, McMahon said, is timing: New York is unusual in starting its fiscal year on April 1st. Most states and localities, including New York City, begin their fiscal year in July, meaning there’s less immediate urgency for other states to set budget priorities as they reel from COVID-19-induced shutdowns.

New York’s decision to follow the federal government and not collect state taxes until July will create additional pressure to make up for enormous gaps.

Complicating the picture further is the nature of Cuomo’s threatened cuts. No specifics are in the budget document, though the Cuomo administration is expected to outline those in May. Local public schools are already preparing for fiscal pain: districts are weighing teacher layoffs and the elimination of programs, like arts and music electives, AP classes, after-school programs and sports. Bus drivers, counselors and administrators could see layoffs as well.

Since Cuomo has imposed a property tax cap that keeps counties from raising additional funds to cover shortfalls for public schools, deep cuts to K-12 education across the state are increasingly likely. Public higher education is likely to suffer too, following the lead of local private colleges, which have already pursued furloughs and pay cuts.

As the state budget was approved in the wake of coronavirus’s rapid spread, Cuomo won new powers with the legislature’s sign off: he can impose rolling cuts in May, July and January of next year. Once Cuomo produces a report on the budget reductions, the legislature only has 10 days to counter with a proposal of their own. Under the statute, the legislature can only recommend different cuts, not offer revenue raisers like tax increases, which would have to come through the legislative process.

The Democratic legislative leaders, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie and Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, have been relatively mum on the proposed reductions.

Michael Whyland, a spokesman for Heastie, put the onus on the federal government without mentioning Cuomo’s name. “We haven’t yet seen a specific plan, but it does demonstrate the need for the federal government to step up because as Speaker Heastie has said cuts of this magnitude would be devastating, unacceptable, and not in line with New York’s spirit and values,” Whyland said.

James Parrot, an economist at the New School’s Center for New York City Affairs and a longtime budget analyst, believes Cuomo can’t slash state agencies much more than they’ve already been targeted over the years. As an example, he cited the Department of Labor, which is now straining to manage an onslaught of unemployment claims. From the 2011 to 2019 fiscal years, headcount at the Department of Labor declined by 28 percent.

Through April 18th, New York has lagged behind seven other states in unemployment insurance claims, despite the state’s status as the American epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak.

“Cuomo has paid the price of having cut Labor Department staff so deeply they couldn’t handle unemployment claims,” Parrott said.

Under Cuomo, certain local funding has already been on the decline, despite New York’s economic growth over the last decade. Spending on state human services, including aid to help localities pay for public assistance, was slashed by 26 percent between the 2011 and 2018 fiscal years, according to a New School report Parrott authored.

Downstate suburban counties have been hit the hardest by decreases in local aid. This ongoing reduction in state local aid has meant counties have had fewer resources to fund human services, including mental health and public health.

Within the legislature, progressive Democrats are sounding the alarm on the potential social safety net cuts that could punish low-income residents at a time when the local economy is reeling.

“On the one hand, it is completely irresponsible that the federal government hasn’t provided more aid to New York,” said State Senator Julia Salazar, a Brooklyn Democrat. “On the other hand, the Governor’s office has refused to take urgent action to both raise vital revenue for our state and implement economic justice.”

Salazar, along with other left-leaning Democrats and advocates in the state, is calling for Cuomo to raise taxes on the wealthy to help close the budget gap. Among the taxes Salazar and advocates want to see enacted are a billionaire’s wealth tax and an “ultramillionaires” tax on income north of $5 million. Together, advocates estimate the taxes could pump $12.2 billion into state coffers alone.

The governor’s office has not yet responded to our questions about why he doesn’t support raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers to try and plug the budget deficit.

Cuomo has long been adverse to raising taxes. In 2019, he brushed aside arguments for new taxes on high earners. “I don’t believe raising taxes on the rich. That would be the worst thing to do. You would just expand the shortfall,” Cuomo said. “God forbid if the rich leave.”

In the meantime, planned revenue raisers aren’t going to materialize on-time. MTA officials blamed coronavirus for delays on a congestion pricing plan that was set to garner billions for the MTA starting in January 2021.

Cuomo’s move to shrink the budget without embracing any kind of new tax is in defiance of past precedent. In the wake of the 2008 economic crash, which took a significant toll on New York State’s finances, Governor David Paterson, a Democrat, signed off on a millionaire’s tax and an MTA payroll tax to help raise funds. Past governors, including Republican Nelson Rockefeller, raised income taxes during recessions. George Pataki, another Republican governor, was forced to accept post-9/11 tax hikes after the state legislature overrode his veto.

Michael Kink, the executive director of the left-leaning Strong Economy for All Coalition, said these and other tax hikes, like an assessment on expensive second homes and a boost in the state corporate tax, could help close the gap. Kink is also urging Cuomo, in the interim, to borrow money at near zero-interest from the Federal Reserve to help plug budget gaps.

“You’re looking at public school teachers, looking at folks who take care of roads and bridges, senior centers, food banks,” said Kink of Cuomo’s proposed budget cuts. “Cuomo every day talks about why the poor are hardest hit. Can’t we do something about inequality? What he is doing now is the exact same thing that he’s been doing in the decade he’s been in office. He’s cutting frontline services to lower income people.”

For those who are skeptical of tax hikes, like Cuomo and the Empire Center’s McMahon, there is the ongoing question of how much money the rich would have to give during an economic crisis that is cutting into their net worth. (Some billionaires have taken relatively larger hits due to stock market volatility while others, like Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and Tesla’s Elon Musk, have actually gotten richer during the pandemic.) McMahon doesn’t believe Cuomo’s cuts will end up as severe as threatened, but argues the real fight will be over freezing pay raises for politically influential public sector unions.

In the meantime, Cuomo can unilaterally cut the budgets of the state agencies he controls instead of devastating localities, McMahon said. “Absolutely positively everybody in the private sector is seeing income decreased, from the richest to the poorest. Why should state employees be due for raises?”

What’s clear, regardless of the fiscal debate, is that Cuomo is more powerful than ever, with soaring approval ratings and new budgetary powers that have weakened the legislature’s ability to counter the cuts he chooses to impose. For some lawmakers in Albany, it’s a particularly grim time.

“These cuts are a disgrace,” said Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, a Manhattan Democrat. “The most vulnerable among us will suffer for years to come.”