Present-day Boston with more than 170 feet of future sea-level rise
What would happen if the current growth trend in greenhouse gas emissions continues for the rest of this century before reversing? It’s a question worth pondering, especially with a president who has vowed to quit the Paris climate accord and is aggressively promoting the use of coal, gas and oil.
Our research with colleagues indicates that one consequence would be an unrelenting rise of the oceans for 10,000 years, ultimately reaching more than 170 feet above present levels, with half of that increase occurring in the next thousand years.
The map of the world would be redrawn. As Antarctica and Greenland lost nearly all of their ice, vast portions of the United States, some more than 100 miles inland, would be inundated.
We’re hopeful that the 2015 Paris climate deal will slow emissions, and there are signs that this is happening, though efforts to meet its goals are falling behind. Even if the world’s nations manage to limit warming to near 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels — the accord’s main target — seas will continue to rise by 80 feet over 10,000 years, according to our modeling.
We are at a historic moment, and we have the science to recognize it. Because climate-warming carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for thousands of years, how we deal with this problem today will have profound effects long after we are gone.
Try to figure out the states by the shapes of their remaining landforms if oceans were to rise by more than 170 feet.
Can you guess which states these are?
Remaining
landmass
new jersey
•
PRINCETON
•
TRENTON
Land lost
to sea
•
ATLANTIC CITY
Remaining
landmass
new jersey
PRINCETON
•
•
TRENTON
Land lost
to sea
ATLANTIC CITY
•
BIRMINGHAM
•
alabama
MONTGOMERY
•
MOBILE
•
BIRMINGHAM
•
alabama
MONTGOMERY
•
MOBILE
•
ORLANDO
•
florida
TAMPA
•
MIAMI
•
ORLANDO
•
florida
TAMPA
•
MIAMI
•
•
SHREVEPORT
louisiana
•
NEW ORLEANS
•
SHREVEPORT
louisiana
•
NEW ORLEANS
south carolina
•
•
MYRTLE
BEACH
COLUMBIA
•
CHARLESTON
south carolina
•
•
MYRTLE
BEACH
COLUMBIA
•
CHARLESTON
north carolina
RALEIGH
•
CHARLOTTE
•
•
FAYETTEVILLE
•
WILMINGTON
north carolina
RALEIGH
•
CHARLOTTE
•
•
FAYETTEVILLE
•
WILMINGTON
mississippi
•
JACKS0N
mississippi
•
JACKS0N
•
BOSTON
massachusetts
•
SPRINGFIELD
•
BOSTON
massachusetts
•
SPRINGFIELD
•
PROVIDENCE
rhode island
•
•
NEWPORT
KINGSTON
•
PROVIDENCE
rhode island
•
•
NEWPORT
KINGSTON
•
BALTIMORE
maryland
•
BALTIMORE
maryland
We’ll show your results once you’ve answered every question. You have 10 questions left.
It may have been difficult to identify these states because the scale of inundation is so drastic. But 16 other states and the nation’s capital, shown below, would also be severely damaged. Two states that are now landlocked, Arkansas and Vermont, would become, in effect, coastal.
•
BARROW
•
NOME
•
YUKON DELTA N.W.R.
•
ANCHORAGE
•
LITTLE ROCK
•
PINE BLUFF
SACRAMENTO
•
SAN FRANCISCO
•
FRESNO
•
•
SANTA BARBARA
•
OXNARD
•
LOS ANGELES
•
SAN DIEGO
HARTFORD
•
•
NEW HAVEN
•
Georgetown
•
Capitol Hill
WILMINGTON
•
•
ATLANTA
•
AUGUSTA
•
SAVANNAH
•
HONOLULU
•
PORTLAND
•
PORTSMOUTH
•
MANCHESTER
•
NEW YORK
•
PORTLAND
•
SALEM
•
PHILADELPHIA
•
PROVIDENCE
•
NEWPORT
•
DALLAS
•
HOUSTON
•
CORPUS
CHRISTI
RICHMOND
•
•
VIRGINIA
BEACH
•
BURLINGTON
•
SEATTLE
The East Coast retreats far inland, by 100 miles or more in places, its great cities transformed into a string of modern Atlantises. Low-lying West Coast cities would share the same fate. So would those of every other seaboard nation.
The costs to wildlife would also be severe. One example: Alaska’s vast Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge, larger than Maine, would mostly disappear.