The human toll and economic cost the Corona panic took has not even been guessed at. But it’s clear Sweden’s approach saved many lives along with its economy.
Lockdowns and extremee social distancing measures are not necessary to “flatten the peak.” The analysis done by numerous researchers show the rate of infections and deaths rise and fall according to the same pattern in every country the virus has struck, regardless of varying population densities, testing rates, case levels, mortality rates, etc. and in spite of the severity of the lockdowns they’ve imposed and when they imposed them in the life-cycle of the outbreak.
3/ The math goes like this: If 10% of the population is infected, say, lockdowns can't extinguish the virus quickly enough to matter; if 1% is, the lockdowns must remain in place for a VERY long time to matter. Almost tautogically, they will come either too early or too late.
Unlike its neighbors, Sweden did not impose a lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak.
The strategy — aimed at building a broad-base of immunity while protecting at-risk groups like the elderly — has proved controversial.
But Sweden’s chief epidemiologist has said “herd immunity” could be reached in Stockholm within weeks.
Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.
The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.
But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.
“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.
Herd immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity. Reinfections of coronavirus have been reported.
People enjoy themselves at an outdoor restaruant, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in central Stockholm, Sweden, on April 20, 2020.
Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”
“Unfortunately the mortality rate is high due to the introduction (of the virus) in elderly care homes and we are investigating the cause of that,” he said.
The major part of Sweden’s 15,322 confirmed cases are in Stockholm and its surrounding areas, with very small incidences of the virus in the rest of Sweden — a country of around 10 million that has a low population density outside its urban hubs.
The number of cases in Sweden is almost double that in neighboring Denmark (it has 8,108 cases and has reported 370 deaths) and Finland (with just over 4,000 cases and 141 deaths) that imposed strict lockdown measures. Since their populations are each about 5 million — half of Sweden’s — the rates are about the same, although the comparison could be skewed by testing numbers in each country. Still, Sweden’s 1,937 death toll is far higher than its neighbors.
Sweden originally tested only people who came into a hospital but is now testing more key workers and those in care homes. Tegnell said the decision to test more groups of people was a reason for the number of confirmed cases not declining as quickly as it could have.
Sweden is testing around 20,000 people a week and hopes to increase that to 100,000 in a few weeks’ time, Tegnell said.
watch now
While the number of new cases appears to be declining, achieving herd immunity has proved controversial. Tacitly allowing the virus to spread (albeit having put measures in place to slow its spread) puts the elderly and people with existing health conditions at a greater risk of becoming seriously ill and, potentially, dying.
Tegnell conceded that the situation in Sweden’s care homes, which have seen the majority of deaths from the coronavirus, is worrying.
“The death toll is very closely related to elderly care homes. More than half of the people that have died have lived in elderly care homes.” Tegnell said, adding that he and the Public Health Agency are “still very concerned about the elderly.”
“It’s the group we said we needed to protect,” he said, adding that the agency was working with homes to see what improvements could be made to lower risk factors.
20200423 Bending the curve total cases
Nonetheless, Tegnell said he was “fairly confident” in the strategy his agency had pursued but said it would be too early for the Swedish government to lift restrictions imposed to delay the spread of the virus. “A big part of the country has not been affected at all yet.”
″(But) if you look at the exit strategies that now many countries have opted for, they look very much like Sweden’s (strategy and restrictions),” he said.
People enjoy themselves at an outdoor restaruant, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in central Stockholm, Sweden, on April 20, 2020.
Tegnell said that soon, several studies will be published to show the extent of infection and recovery (and hopefully) immunity to the virus. Data showed the peak of infections had already been reached in Stockholm.
Sweden’s response to the pandemic has been guided by Tegnell and the Public Health Agency. While other countries have gone into lockdown at the advice of their scientific advisors, Sweden was conspicuous in its different approach, largely trusting the public to adopt voluntary measures to delay the spread of the virus.
The Public Health Agency raised eyebrows Wednesday when it pulled a report from its website due to an error, but Anders Tegnell told CNBC Thursday that the issue was not related to the herd immunity claims. He said the report would be amended and re-published Thursday and that the error had to do with the modeling of cases.
Sweden’s government has advocated working from home if at all possible and to avoid nonessential travel and social contact with the elderly. Meanwhile, restaurants, bars, cafes and nightclubs have been offering seated table service only, and gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned. Yet schools for under 16-year-olds have remained open and life has generally carried on as before, just at a quieter pace.
Tegnell said the country was conducting more widespread testing and sampling to gauge the extent of the outbreak.
“We are right now going out and doing countrywide tests on immunity to see what big differences we have in different parts of Sweden,” Tegnell said. “It’s a little bit of a mystery why nothing has really happened in other parts of Sweden.”
“The virus keeps on surprising us when it comes to this,” he said, noting that the most southern region of the country, which borders Denmark, had seen relatively few cases given its border location and the constant movement of people between the countries, which was allowed to continue for the most part despite the virus.
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spfoam1
4 years ago
If Sweden or England told me the time of day I would not believe them. They tell us to embrace Islam and fill the nation with Muslims, and the tell us to hold the border open, and they tell us to power the nation on windmills or solar panels, and they tell us free international trade with communist nations is a great thing….
tituspullo
4 years ago
the “doctors” fauci and bird, and the democrat media, never mention the data coming from sweden and how it appears that these two “doctors” are being exposed as complete frauds
felix1999
4 years ago
Actually this is not entirely accurate. All schools and universites were shut down. Many in Sweden voluntarily stayed home. Also Sweden stopped counting virus deaths and infections and deaths are surging!
I understand the impatience to open up and minimizing this because of scare monger, fraudsers Fauci and Brix. Many states and geographic areas in the U.S. need to open or we will collapse our economy but do it with caution. People are really dying and getting this virus! This virus seems to be more contagious than the common flu.
NJ Total infected: 99,989
NJ Total deaths: 5,063
NJ is surging and that is with NAZI like stay at home and now an open mask requirement. In other states it is declining and those are the states and geographic areas that should open!
Expert Predicts Coronavirus ‘Tragedy’ in Sweden as Deaths Increase
BY CHRIS TOMLINSON 11 Apr 2020
Sweden to Stop Publishing Coronavirus Numbers, Deems Them ‘Not Important’
CHRIS TOMLINSON 14 Mar 2020
…
Swedish authorities have called for limiting gatherings and events to under 500 people to combat the spread of the virus. Some have cancelled events entirely, while others, such as the Stockholm Royal Dramatic Threatre, have promised to keep events under 450 people including audience and staff.
… https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/14/sweden-to-stop-publishing-coronavirus-numbers-deems-them-not-important/
Sweden Health Board Says Elderly Can Be Given Lower Priority, But Not Illegal Migrants
BY CHRIS TOMLINSON29 Mar 2020
Sweden’s elderly, along with Swedes with pre-existing health conditions, can be given lower priority than healthy young illegal migrants, according to the new guidelines.
Dr Thomas Lindén, of the National Board of Health and Welfare, said that health professionals should prioritise based on medical needs and not on the basis of citizenship, according to Nyheter Idag.
Agreed. I didn’t vote for that “Little Napoleon” to run this country, any more than did my grandparents vote for Mrs. Wilson to run it surreptitiously while President Wilson was in a coma.
After juggling the numbers and weighing the evidence, I’m beginning to believe the virus isn’t that pervasive nor deadly as reported.
RCCA
4 years ago
If we followed the Swedish model and had their death rate we’d have 495,000 deaths by now. Is that what Geller wants to see? Maybe a million deaths from COVID by the time this is over? What a brutally cold prospect.
OK, how about following the example of The Republic of Korea? Other than closing public schools and asking new arrivals to self-quarantine for fourteen days … the government did not mandate the closing of businesses. Physicians started prescribing a cocktail of quinine malaria drugs, zinc, and antibiotics, widely, by mid February. They went from being the “Apex” to averaging around one death per day.
Talk about an ignorant comparison completely devoid of detail. First of all, South Korea has a completely different culture. Break a curfew or quarantine in SK and you go to jail for a year, get fined $2500 if you step out of your house. How do they know? Because you have to download an app which tracks you. The SK government used surveillance cameras, people’s credit cards and phones to track down people who had been exposed to COVID to put them in quarantine in government facilities if they tested positive, tens of thousands of people taken away by the police. Also, people in SK and other Asian countries wear face masks as a normal practice, the government distributes them. Imagine trying those kinds of methods here in the US. — the federal govt. telling people they have to wear masks. Maybe next time.
BTW, SK had a serious outbreak of MERS in 2015, the US did not, as a result they were prepared in advance with testing procedures. Test and remove people — that’s what they have done, all of which you didn’t bother to explain. What’s the important point? The South Koreans have avoided a high death count — they didn’t just say who cares about a high death count and keep their economy open, as you suggest. Stupid.
Talk about a blithering idiot’s “comment”. The only quarantine that has been/was placed, was for new arrivals in the country. Fourteen days of self-confinement. Again, only new arrivals were ordered to self-quarantines. Where in the world are you coming up with such bald-faced lies?
Those that were taken to government facilities were new arrivals into their country … and no one wanted them. Lie, upon lie, upon lie.
For a new virus, yes … both SARS and Covid-19 are corona viruses, but a test for one does not work as a test for another. Judas!
There are idiots. There are blithering idiots. And then, as in your case, there is a blithering idiot’s blithering idiot.
Where’s your documentation for mass use of anti malaria treatments? I see mentions of tests of 100 or so people, nothing like the mass treatments you claimed.
You are correct, only foreigners are dragged to govt. facilities, or deported. Otherwise govt. has zero tolerance for breaking quarantines — big fines and jail sentences backed up by very invasive surveillance of citizens. Just the sort of thing Americans would support, according to nobody. Just ask the protesters in AZ, MI, etc.
https://medium.com/@stevejang/flattening-the-curve-the-south-korean-approach-to-covid-19-49cb55d1e782 :
“After examination, before they get the result, patients are required to stay at home for 14 days. During the quarantine period, a healthcare center staff delivers necessary supplies such as hand sanitizer to the front of the house. For violating the 14-days quarantine rule, a fine of 3 million won was imposed (equivalent to $2400 USD). The law has been revised due to the recent COVID-19, resulting in a fine of 10 million won (equivalent to $8000 USD)
If the result is negative, they will be released after 14 days of quarantine, but if positive, they will be immediately taken to the designated hospital. ”
Feel free to claim that South Korea kept open their economy without very stringent methods. Bogus.
Again, little one, the only individuals that had a government ordered quarantine were new arrivals into the country.
Many of my friend’s, Dr. Kim, Min-Soo’s, patients had tested positive at a drive-in testing site. They weren’t rushed to any hospital. Rather, they came to his clinic and were treated. I can secure notarized letters to that effect.
That, aside from closing schools, are/were the only government mandates.
If you desire to continue spouting bald faced lies, go for it. You seem to have a need for doing so.
No, I just don’t want to continue conversations with people who are obviously mentally ill, like the Achmed character. He was unable to provide any actual documentation for any of his claims. Big on posturing and insults, tiny on facts.
PS People who tested positive were put in quarantine, not just the foreigners. The foreigners were taken to govt. facilities though.
How about providing some documentation in English? Or I call horseshit.
How does this sound, little one. I wager that people that tested positive, simply called (without coercion) their doctors and went to their clinic? No forced hospitalization. I’ll wager ten thousand dollars, U.S. And, I’ll provide notarized affidavits stating such, signed by physicians. Take the wager. Or, I call horseshit.
You continue to HUMILIATE yourself.
No, little one, in each of the attached newspapers, there are daily updates and articles dealing with Covid-19. That’s why I chose them. What a blithering idiot’s blithering idiot.
The whole world’s economy took a hit. Their domestic economy is coming back a hell of a lot better than countries with government mandated lockdowns.
However, authoritarian fascists, that you see to worship, ain’t doin’ so well.
Gyonggi-Do is sending around ninety dollars, per person. What a bailout!
There are idiots, there are blithering idiots, and then there is you, a blithering idiot’s blithering idiot.
April 23, 2020 12:53
“The government on Wednesday announced a W3.4-trillion plan to create 550,000 jobs as employment shrivels due to the coronavirus epidemic (US$1=W1,233). It is part of a W10.1 trillion emergency package to help businesses and workers affected by the epidemic.”
I stated nothing about Korea’s economy not suffering. Rather, I stated that their Covid-19, without authoritarian fascists (whom you seem to worship) closing things down.
The first sign of someone with an exceedingly low level of education, is when they are losing their argument, even with the telling of bald faced lies; then attempting to change the subject.
TOO funny, little one. You are HUMILIATING yourself.
Guess South Korea has its economic problems even though they didn’t shut down. Thanks for your sources.
http://english.khan.co.kr/khan_art_view.html?artid=202004232227127&code=710100 [Fifth Emergency Economic Policy Meeting] Government to Invest 90 Trillion Won to Maintain Jobs: South Korea’s “New Deal” The government will inject an additional 90 trillion won into our economy to secure jobs and save small business owners and basic industries facing a crisis due to COVID-19. The government also announced that it would aggressively promote a South Korean “New Deal” to create more jobs.
On April 22, the government held the fifth emergency economic policy meeting chaired by President Moon Jae-in and announced measures to stabilize employment and businesses to overcome a job crisis.
When we add the latest measures to the 151 trillion won of government support decided in the previous four meetings, the government measures in response to COVID-19 reaches a total of 241 trillion won.
Again, little one, what does that have to do with the control of the Covid-19 virus, without totalitarian fascists closing down businesses and violating civil rights?
TOO funny, little one. You are HUMILIATING yourself.
Didn’t shut down? Yes South Korea did: “Cautiously Opening Theater Doors, After All the Essence of a Stage Performance Is the Audience
By Moon Hak-soo, Senior Reporter
Little one, the theaters were not closed by totalitarian fascists. If people stop attending the theater, that is a personal choice, not one mandated by the totalitarian fascists that you worship.
You continue to HUMILIATE yourself.
“Gov’t to allow citizens to buy three masks each week, send 1 mln masks to foreign war veterans”
Politics 10:07 April 24, 2020
“The government said Friday it will allow people in South Korea to buy three discounted face masks per week under a public distribution system and also announced a plan to supply Korean War veterans abroad with 1 million masks.
Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said citizens would need more masks once they increase economic activities, going forward.”
Gee, I thought there was no shutting down of economic activity according to you, Achmed.
Gee, I thought that I had corrected your lies about shutting down economic activity. Masks are still being privately sold. The government furnished masks are around 1/10th actual retail prices. That has nothing to do with shutting down economic activity.
You must be so disappointed that they’re having such success, with the Covid-19 virus, without the leftist totalitarian fascists, that you love, shutting everything down.
You’re HUMILIATING yourself.
South Korea economy: S. Korean economy shrinks 1.4 pct in Q1 amid virus fallout, sharpest contraction since 20082nd LD) SEOUL, April 23 (Yonhap) — South Korea’s economy shrank 1.4 percent on-quarter in the first quarter of this year, as the coronavirus pandemic crippled industrial output, consumer spending and job markets, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Thursday.
It marked the sharpest quarterly contraction since the fourth quarter of 2008, when the nation’s economy sank 3.3 percent on-quarter.
Obviously, you are FAR too stupid to comprehend the written word. In no way, shape, or form, did I even intimate that The Republic of Korea’s economy did not get hit. Rather, I stated that the government did not mandate the closing of businesses. Neither did they close churches. Somang Presbyterian, which has a seating capacity in the main sanctuary of thousands, had halls and rooms with video of Easter services, overflowing, so that over one thousand people stood outside.
And, their daily death count is averaging between one and two.
The fact that totalitarian leftist fascists, that you love, didn’t close the country down and they have a very good handle on Covid-19.
But, since you couldn’t lie your way around that … you attempted to change the subject. That is a common move of the exceedingly poorly educated.
You continue to HUMILIATE yourself.
“Court approves arrest warrant for man over violation of self-isolation rules” UIJEONGBU, South Korea, April 18 (Yonhap) — A local court issued an arrest warrant for a 27-year-old man who allegedly violated self-isolation rules related to the new coronavirus, citing possible flight risk.
It was the second formal detention of people who breached self-isolation rules, following a case involving a 68-year-old man in eastern Seoul earlier this week.
The Uijeongbu District Court approved police’s request to arrest the man who went outside without permission while under self-quarantine. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200418002200315
Oh, what happened to your lie about those that were infected being forced into government holdings? That doesn’t go along with the lies that you were telling.
TOO funny, little one. You continue to HUMILIATE yourself.
“The government will partially open more than 24,000 outdoor facilities run by local governments, such as football fields and public gymnasiums. The local governments will decide whether to open these facilities after considering the quarantine conditions of the facilities and the COVID-19 patient status. Although they are outdoor facilities, they will only be opened when they follow quarantine guidelines–users need to have their temperatures checked and wear a mask.
The problem is the golden holiday, which begins at the end of this month. Starting with Buddha’s Birthday on April 30, a series of public holidays continue with Labor Day on May 1 and Children’s Day on May 5. …
Yoon Tae-ho, director of quarantine at the Central Disaster Relief Headquarters said, “From the perspective of quarantine authorities, the golden holiday will be the most critical time for people to keep a physical distance,” and added, “We ask that you refrain from traveling.”
He stressed that if it was inevitable, the people should at least refrain from group trips and gather in small groups centered on the family members they live with and avoid densely populated places.
Local governments with tourist attractions are also on alert, getting ready for quarantine measures in preparation for the golden holiday. Gangwon-do plans to distribute over 59,000 masks, 8,457 hand sanitizers, 7,884 hand cleaners, and 5,303 disinfectants to over 2,100 hospitality facilities including hotels and restaurants and place 7 million alcohol swabs in these facilities for tourists to disinfect their cell phones. Yanggu-gun and Jeongseon-gun canceled the “2020 Yanggu Fischer’s Ragwort Festival” and the “Jeongseon Korean Thistle and Wild Greens Festival,” which had been scheduled during the golden holiday. The local governments determined it would not be appropriate in terms of preventing the spread of an infectious disease to go ahead with the local festival, which could attract some 150,000 to 200,000 tourists at one time.”
I notice that you reference government owned, and run, facilities. Just as they closed down public schools. There are many privately owned amusement parks that were left open. No Leftist Regressive Totalitarian Fascists, that you love, closed them down.
The government did NOT tell anyone that they HAD to wear a mask. At first, there weren’t any as their idiot president had sent them to China. There are calls for his impeachment for that.
Again, little one, you are proving how stupid you truly are. A SARS test would NOT work for Covid-19.
There are idiots. There are blithering idiots. Then there is the blithering idiot’s blithering idiot.
And, then there is you, a Leftist Regressive Totalitarian Fascist Worshipping Blithering Idiot’s Blithering Idiot.
Clem Jackson
4 years ago
You need to understand others factors here at play that are used or ignored, depending what your stance on the lockdown is, let me explain please. There was a comparison with England and Sweden, making claims that Swedens non lockdown is working. So the population of England is 53 million and Sweden 10 million, England has 5 times the population of Sweden. Population density per square mile, Engalnd 727 people, 10 times the density of Sweden at 63 per square mile. So in general Swedish people live much farther apart by 10 times less density. adding to this fact that 50% of Swedish people live on their own.You could say they were social distancing due to the sparce numbers inhabiting a large country and the way they live. But if you look at the density argument throughout the outbreaks in other country’s, it shows a distinct correlation between high and low density country’s or states in America. The higher the density the greater the number of deaths.
There is no battle against pisslam because they are all too frightened to upset them. Mass grooming, rapes, torture, murders, bombs and theft is now rampant in every major town and city, just like the UK and most of it swept under the rug by politicians and the media plus those that do complain are treated like enemies of the state. I remember in both countries seeing dopey left wing morons going to the streets with placards saying ‘welcome refugees’ and we ‘support immigration’ and they were usually young women. They must all be so happy now.
*** You and yours have a wonderful weekend, rickyoo!
Dave Glynn
4 years ago
Our politicians have been coerced and stampeded by the 24/7 coverage of the Corona bug by the MSM who can want for nothing better than a scared population glued to their news Channel for the latest info on how we are to survive. And I take note that both Trump and Boris were dead set against the closedown of our societies but were forced by the prevailing media that so easily formed the public’s opinion so that if they hadn’t of closed down then every death would be seen as blood on their hands and a finger pointing towards them.
The Swedish government for once has done the right thing and Not succumbed to the press generated panic so I congratulate them fully.
Hiya Rob. I’v noticed that there’s more traffic on the streets here today and particularly work vans which obviously suggests that people individually have had enough and already trickling back to work. I guessed it would happen by mid May but looks like it could happen sooner. A lot of damage has been done by the knee jerk panic though and it will take a while to fully repair our economies.
Beverly
4 years ago
I read a report this a.m. that Ecuador did not do a lockdown and with a population of 17,336,000 has had 550 deaths from coronavirus.
leonore35
4 years ago
I do not think this proves anything about lock down. Sweden has 16,755 cases with 2021 deaths, 751 new cases yesterday. Neighbouring Finland with about half the population of Sweden has 4,284 cases and 172 deaths. That is Sweden has 12 times mores deaths and 4 times the number of cases. There is also the fact that Sweden’s migrant population is 24%+, these communities are mainly Muslims so as they do not cooperate with authorities
and think they are protected by ‘alla’ . I anticipate the final totals will be much higher
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