[ April 19, 2024 ]
The studies, conducted by public health officials and scientists at Stanford University and the University of Southern California, show the estimates of the number of people infected in those counties were far, far higher than the number of confirmed cases.
After adjustments intended to account for differences between the sample and the population of the county as a whole, the researchers estimated that the prevalence of antibodies was between 2.5 percent and a bit more than 4 percent. The county’s population is 1.9 million.
The coronavirus may be much less deadly than originally expected, with a fatality rate more closely resembling that of a seasonal flu strain than a pandemic of profound lethality.
Coronavirus Infections May Not Be Uncommon, Tests Suggest
Two preliminary efforts to survey citizens for antibodies to the virus have produced controversial results.
Story continues below advertisementBy Gina Kolata. NY Times, April 21, 2020:
Two new studies using antibody tests to assess how many people have been infected with the coronavirus have turned up numbers higher than some experts had expected.
Both studies were performed in California: one among residents of Santa Clara County, south of San Francisco, and the other among residents of Los Angeles County. In both cases, the estimates of the number of people infected in those counties were far higher than the number of confirmed cases.
The studies, conducted by public health officials and scientists at Stanford University and the University of Southern California, have earned the ire of critics who questioned both the recruitment methods and the analyses.
In the Santa Clara County study, researchers tested 3,330 volunteers for antibodies indicating exposure to the virus. Roughly 1.5 percent were positive.
After adjustments intended to account for differences between the sample and the population of the county as a whole, the researchers estimated that the prevalence of antibodies was between 2.5 percent and a bit more than 4 percent. The county’s population is 1.9 million.
That means that 48,000 to 81,000 people were infected with the coronavirus in Santa Clara County by early April, the investigators concluded.
If accurate, that would mean that 220,000 to 442,000 residents had been exposed. By comparison, only 8,000 cases had been confirmed in the county by early April, when the testing was done.
To find participants in the Los Angeles County study, researchers used a random sample of email addresses and telephone numbers of residents to invite people to participate in what they said would be a Covid-19 survey.
The scientists set limits on participation, based on factors like ethnicity and age, in an effort to ensure the sample represented the county’s population. About 1,100 people signed up to be tested.
The study in Santa Clara County found participants by advertising on Facebook. Most of the first volunteers were in wealthy ZIP codes, so the investigators also recruited from poorer areas. As in the Los Angeles County study, the goal was to get a representative sample of the population.
“It’s not perfect, but it’s the best science can do,” said Dr. John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford University and an author of the Santa Clara County report.
Antibody studies in other countries have produced similar figures, he noted.
If the numbers prove accurate, the coronavirus may be much less deadly than originally expected, with a fatality rate more closely resembling that of a seasonal flu strain than a pandemic of profound lethality.
But there are questions about who was tested. Among them: Were people who had reason to think they had been infected overrepresented among the volunteers?
“We tried to look into the possibility of bias influencing the results,” Dr. Ioannidis said. “We asked for symptoms recently and in the last few months, and were very careful with our adjustments. We did a very lengthy set of analyses.”
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38 Comments
3 years ago
Great news! Mortality data are always hard to calculate. Even with a tiny mortality rate, the total number can easily be 10 times more than 60,000, if the epidemic infects tens of millions of people. Here are a few notes about Covid-19 mortality, from STATnews, a medical website:
“A mortality rate of ‘60,000, is a little more than the capacity of Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. It is the number of passengers in 180 full jumbo jets… 60,000 is more than the number of U.S. combat deaths in the Vietnam War… About 8,000 Americans die every day from diseases and other natural causes… We do not try to calculate how many of the Covid-19 deaths “substitute” for other deaths; that is an important calculation that researchers will be eager to do once the crisis passes.'”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/09/its-difficult-to-grasp-the-projected-deaths-from-covid-19-heres-how-they-compare-to-other-causes-of-death/
My observation: A mortality of 3,000 in 9/11 triggered a multi-trillion dollar ongoing war against terrorism. It is not that easy to be rational about mass mortality.
3 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Stanford University and the University of Southern California are very LIBERAL.
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Stanford and USC are more conservative than the rest of those commies. But no one should be fully believed when it comes to epidemiological data. Even experts who think they know, don’t know.
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
“The coronavirus may be much less deadly than originally expected, with a fatality rate more closely resembling that of a seasonal flu strain than a pandemic of profound lethality.” – Pamela
Important sentence! Yes, Covid-19 could have the same or lower case fatality rate than common flu. But if twice as many Covid-19 cases are infected, the total mortality will double. And today the US total Covid-19 mortality is estimated at 45,564, and that’s a lot, and it will at least double before this is over [= 90,000]. There will probably be some compensating reductions in other mortalities, like flus, colds, traffic accidents, violent crimes, bar fights, etc., but those are unknown right now. And remember, we went to war over 3,000 mortalities on 9/11.
Epidemiologists don’t decide on what is a ‘good’ mortality rate, because that’s a religious and moral question, and they are not priests or rabbis.
3 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Have epidemiologists decided on what a “good” starvation rate is?
3 years ago
Reply to
Shadowfax
Epidemiologists don’t decide on what is a ‘good’ mortality rate, because that’s a religious and moral question, and they are not priests or rabbis. Acceptable mortality rates are established by social consensus, not by science. It is general public sentiment that will determine the tolerance for Covid-19 mortality.
3 years ago
That is debatable but I haven’t seen any debate on it being more contagious than the flu. I’d like to see stats on how how contragious the flu is vs CONVID 19 and also WHO is affected more. Are older people and those with existing medical conditions affected more by the Chinese virus and the flu. I really don’t know what to think about it….
Regardless – Bangladesh: Over 100,000 gather for funeral of Islamic teacher, defying coronavirus lockdown
APR 22, 2020 8:00 AM
BY CHRISTINE DOUGLASS-WILLIAMS
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2020/04/bangladesh-over-100000-gather-for-funeral-of-islamic-teacher-defying-coronavirus-lockdown
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Felix, typical infection rates are called the “Basic Reproduction Number”, also labeled ‘Rzero’ or ‘Rnull’. CDC Rzero estimates for:
Common flu = 1.3 [each case infects 1.3 other people on average]
Covid-19 = 2 to 2.5 [each case infects 2.25 other people on average]
And as always, take these numbers with a grain of salt. If a population suddenly doubled their hand washings, infection rates for both could drop in half.
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Felix, For both common flu an Covid-19, older people and those with existing medical conditions are affected more than average. [But we don’t fully know what ‘average’ is for Covid-19, because about 90% of infected cases have gone undetected]. For the very young, the common flu seems to be more dangerous than Covid-19.
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
This looks like a Find Waldo picture or one of those advanced jig saw puzzles. The sameness is depressing.
3 years ago
Reply to
Poetcomic1
We both know Allah will keep them safe. They always have camel pee, Imam spit in a bottle, scented oil on cotton balls to shove up their anus and burnt female donkey poo to inhale to cure them. We don’t need to worry about them. They are more advanced than us….
3 years ago
There is an enormous misinformation/disinformation/distraction campaign in progress. We have long been deceived by every conceivable “trusted” source of information, so I wouldn’t trust any information from any source with Democrat Party connections.
Over 40,000 US citizens have died in an attack by a European centered foreign collective of power, for the purpose of putting a (D)omestic enemy, a traitor, back in the WH. We are at war. There have been many hints.
The 3 step plan to safely bring restart the economy is brilliant, and is much more than it appears to be.
3 years ago
CDC’s failed coronavirus tests were tainted with coronavirus, feds confirm. A federal investigation found CDC researchers not following protocol.
BETH MOLE – 4/20/2020, 11:16 AM
As the new coronavirus took root across America, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent states tainted test kits in early February that were themselves seeded with the virus, federal officials have confirmed.
The contamination made the tests uninterpretable, and—because testing is crucial for containment efforts—it lost the country invaluable time to get ahead of the advancing pandemic.
The CDC had been vague about what went wrong with the tests, initially only saying that “a problem in the manufacturing of one of the reagents” had led to the failure. Subsequent reporting suggested that the problem was with a negative control—that is, a part of the test meant to be free of any trace of the coronavirus as a critical reference for confirming that the test was working properly overall.
Now, according to investigation results reported by The New York Times, federal officials confirm that sloppy laboratory practices at two of three CDC labs involved in the tests’ creation led to contamination of the tests and their uninterpretable results.
“Just tragic”
(Is that ALL you can say?
How about FIRING some GOVERNMENT people?)
Shortly after the problems became apparent in early February, the Food and Drug Administration sent Timothy Stenzel, chief of in vitro diagnostics and radiological health, to the CDC to investigate what was going wrong. According to the Times, he found a lack of coordination and inexperience in commercial manufacturing.
Problems that led to the contamination included researchers coming and going from labs working on the test kits without changing their coats and researchers sharing lab space to both assemble test components and handle samples containing the coronavirus.
(Make sure YOU wash your hands and don’t touch you face but basic hygienic protocols are ignored in a GOVERNMENT lab. So did the lab people have it too?)
The CDC said in a statement Saturday to the Times that the agency “did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol.” Though the CDC appeared reluctant to admit contamination was at the root of the problem, the Times noted that in a separate statement the CDC seemed to acknowledge such problems, saying the agency has since “implemented enhanced quality control to address the issue and will be assessing the issue moving forward.”
After the CDC first sent its test kit to states in early February, it took the agency around a month to fix the problem. By then, the virus had invaded many communities unimpeded, and any chance that the US had at containing its spread had virtually vanished. By mid-March, many states turned to mitigation efforts, such as social distancing, to try to blunt—rather than prevent—the life-threatening, healthcare-overwhelming effects of COVID-19.
…
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/
CDC government buildings are great!
They have WALLS and GATED!
We have to keep our GOVERNMENT employees safe.
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
And how about stopping buying test kits (and other medical products) from China, who gave us this virus in the first place? I don’t know how dumb we have to be to do business with them. Every country who has bought their crap has had to throw it out – and China got paid a huge price in advance from every one of them (and no refunds apparently). We need to stop doing business with these crooks. Maybe someday the communist government will be replaced with something more sane and then they can be trade partners. Look at Taiwan – they managed to not only take care of themselves but supply the rest of the world with much needed supplies – much of it FREE! That is the kind of nation we should have a partnership with, not a crooked, corrupt, diseased communist dictatorship.
3 years ago
Those “studies” are bought and paid for !! https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-04-21-coronavirus-killed-more-americans-in-last-17-days-than-regular-flu-year.html
3 years ago
Reply to
Jay Dillon
Natural News is a kook website. Few articles are worthwhile…..
The virus is more contagious than heart attacks, cancer, diabetes etc.. Their charts compare apples to oranges for contrast. Try comparing to other contagious diseases.
Natural News is also HIGHLY censored. I posted a politely worded negative comment and it was immediately “pending” and later removed. I give them little to no credibility.
When you have “lockdowns” with a contagious disease they work to flatten the curve BUT lockdowns are not a cure. All they did was stop our hospitals from being over whelmed unless a CURE is found. Vaccines take too long to develop and typically late to addres a new strain. India already has a new strain and it is spreading.
Conservatives were not against quaranting but you can NOT do this forever unless you want to totally collapse the economy, make people crazy and up the suicides. You can not not constantly hand out money unless you want to totally bankrupt the country and create inflation on steroids.
From your link –
The fact that we began the lockdowns allowed the USA to avert over 2 million deaths by July. Yet because the lockdowns worked, scientifically illiterate people (mostly pro-Trump conservatives) have declared the lockdowns weren’t necessary. This includes Ron Paul, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and other prominent conservatives who don’t understand exponential curves:
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Thank you, Felix! This article just goes to show that, despite scientific evidence pointing out that this is nowhere near as deadly as the government is telling us it is, there are people who refuse to look at the facts objectively. Those of us who still can reason, see this exactly for what it is.
3 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
You are fatally wrong. You simply don’t understand exponential curves. This is a deadly bio weapon,not an accident,not a spill, but carefully engineered WMD to destroy us! The release was accompanied by disinformation and suppression of vital information by the ChiCom controlled WHO, aided by the bought and paid for Dog Fart Media. We are at war and the ChiComs, to date,are winning every skirmish and battle,and have successfully convinced even prominent conservative leaders to play down the enormity of the attack. BTW every last supplement recommended by Adams will boost and keep your immune system resilient to viral attacks of all types.
3 years ago
I’m suspicious of this since I don’t see freezer trucks filled with bodies outside of hospitals every year during flu season.
3 years ago
Reply to
Jerry Dobson
I agree and see the Chinese virus as more contagious. The Flu does kill people but it doesn’t appear to be as contagious.
3 years ago
Reply to
Jerry Dobson
I know. I keep hearing this kind of thing, but then I keep hearing about so many people dying. What is going on?
3 years ago
Reply to
livingengine
see my post for an explanation based on fact not ChiCom propaganda. Be very cautious. This is a pernicious bioweapon released by the CCP to destroy us and make their takeover imminent. The CCP Virus has killed more people in the last 17 days than the entire flu season. The frightening stats are compiled here by the highly respected Mike Adams.Go to https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-04-21-coronavirus-killed-more-americans-in-last-17-days-than-regular-flu-year.html
3 years ago
Reply to
John Acord
Would you PLEASE quit lying???? You are either just parroting some BS info from somewhere else or you are a troll.
Total GLOBAL deaths recorded for the chinese wuhan virus are: 197,243
EVERY SINGLE YEAR, the CDC estimates between 290,000 – 648,000 worldwide DIE every year from regular seasonal influenza.
The W.H.O (communist china controlled) states on their website up to 650,000 preople die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu EACH YEAR.
So, with all those facts just presented (go ahead, look them up), I’ll wait for you to explain your BS that the wuhan virus has killed more people in the last 17 days than entire flu season… because I’ll call you the liar that you are right to your face.
3 years ago
Reply to
Danyael Neumeyer
You are free to critique my comments,but you are not free to call me a liar. The information which you rely on is simply not accurate and is designed to obscure the liability of the ChiComs for the CCP Virus,which is deliberately created and designed to crush our economies while at the same time obscuring the ChiCom economic collapse.and the Hong Kong rebellion that was spreading to the mainland. The Chicoms have been incredibly successful.They launched World War III with an attack a thousand times more devastating than Pearl Harbor and no one appears to have noticed. I am distressed that many of our conservative leaders and spolesmen do not recognize the total danger in whcih we and the rest of the world face.
You are fatally wrong. You simply don’t understand exponential curves. This is a deadly bio weapon,not an accident,not a spill, but carefully engineered WMD to destroy us! The release was accompanied by disinformation and suppression of vital information by the ChiCom controlled WHO, aided by the bought and paid for Dog Fart Media. We are at war and the ChiComs, to date,are winning every skirmish and battle,and have successfully convinced even prominent conservative leaders to play down the enormity of the attack.
Be very cautious. This is a pernicious bioweapon released by the CCP to destroy us and make their takeover imminent. The CCP Virus has killed more people in the last 17 days than the entire flu season. The frightening stats are compiled here by the highly respected Mike Adams.Go to https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-04-21-coronavirus-killed-more-americans-in-last-17-days-than-regular-flu-year.html
3 years ago
Reply to
John Acord
You misunderstand my entire comment. You explicitly stated, “The CCP Virus has killed more people in the last 17 days than the entire flu season.” That statement was what I was calling you a liar for. The numbers just don’t even come close to corroborating that statement. Hopefully the data will come out if this was man made or just being tested in a lab, then whether it was intentionally released or if it really was unintentional.
I am not naive, I know exactly what the CCP did when the stocks dropped… I know they used their shill companies to buy up stocks and bonds. What China didn’t account for was the repercussions that will follow from the global governments. The weeks to follow will be very interesting.
What we really need to be scared of are the far left liberals in governmental power and the power hungry nazi governors exploiting this shamdemic to do nothing but give themselves more power.
3 years ago
Reply to
Danyael Neumeyer
I appreciate your explanation,but I suggest you go to http://www.naturalnews.com and tell me what is inaccurate about their numbers. I find them to be very well referenced.
3 years ago
Reply to
Danyael Neumeyer
Please review the information from Natural News and MIke Adams. If you can find a flaw I would appreciate notice. We have been attacked with a horrific WMD and we must recognize we are at war with the CCP. Go to https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-04-24-case-fatality-rate-cfr-is-not-infection-fatality-rate-ifr-coronavirus.html
3 years ago
Reply to
livingengine
I guess they are doing blood testing now for antibodies that people who’ve had the disease create in their system. Early results are showing 100’s of times more people have gotten the disease that we don’t know about. They must have not had any symptoms and their bodies fought it off. If this is the case the virus is far far far far more contagious then anything we’ve seen before. It also means it would be less deadly per capita. But not overall.
3 years ago
From Feb 14, 2020: (https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/02/14/second-wave-of-dangerous-flu-hitting-new-york-pediatric-deaths-on-the-rise/) “The state health department says New York has seen almost 106,824 confirmed flu cases so far this season, with three flu-associated pediatric deaths.”
From NY State Dept. of Health Covid-19 Tracker (https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n) Total tested positive for Covid-19 — 257,216
The flu season is basically over and the Covid pandemic is maybe half way through. Maybe we’ll end up with 2X or 3X the cases of Covid. Who knows?
CDC estimates that the death toll from the flu in the US for 2020 is 24K-62K. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) And that’s thanks to having a vaccine. We’re already at about 42K for Covid deaths, thanks to all the social distancing and mitigation, still no vaccine.
I don’t know about the USC study but the Stanford study was very unreliable. A lot of the test samples came from people who had thought they had had the flu, 30% of them had covid antibodies. That doesn’t mean that 30% of the general public has covid antibodies.
That said, I’m looking forward to seeing how it goes in Georgia and other states that open. Hope it goes well.
3 years ago
This does not ring true. I have seen video which has come out of China – certainly not part of their propaganda – and there are people who collapse on the street and die – people just sort of walk around them or just stand there. It does not seem like the “flu” when you see images like that. Some of the weird symptoms that have been described are nothing like flu, there are said to be some people who have brain damage (lack of oxygen) and of course lung damage. As much as I want things to be normal and to get the government the hell out of our lives, I am not going to subscribe to some story that this virus is no big deal. There are some 45,000 dead victims who tell me otherwise. What is needed is for the federal government to LOAN to credit companies, mortgage companies, etc., the amount of people’s monthly payments, to be repaid interest free over the next year. Meanwhile no payment s will be required of anyone on any kind of loan or lease or credit card debt, etc. and no interest or lump sum payment or late fees. Then people could at least stay home long enough for this to end without fearing losing their car, their house, their business or job or their credit. It is so damn simple. The problem is that there is no room for graft or favoritism in this plan, so no motive for our representatives in Congress to do this. If they don’t retain excessive control over everything they see no benefit in it for themselves. They do not share a common interest with the rest of us. That is the tragic truth. But this virus is a real threat. Tens of thousands dead in Spain and Italy, China, Iran and America ought to tell you something. I am becoming increasingly disappointed with this site.
3 years ago
Reply to
oldschoolpatriot
Pamela does not pretend togive medical advice.She operates an open forum. If you want the facts on the CCP Virus go here. The frightening stats are compiled here by the highly respected Mike Adams.Go to https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-04-21-coronavirus-killed-more-americans-in-last-17-days-than-regular-flu-year.html
3 years ago
I don’t trust anything from usc.
Why do they keep rerunning and changing their models to fit their narratives? Why not just do the math?
They said on the news last night people with high blood pressure, diabetes and elderly were more susceptible to it. Well makes sense, but that is the rub, we have lost our common sense. Those people should use a bit of caution and let the rest of us live our lives.
3 years ago
This is good news and hopefully good science,but an objective reading leads one to conclude the CCP Virus may be less lethal than the flu but it affects far more people resulting increase in deaths in absolute numbers. Be very cautious. This is a pernicious bioweapon released by the CCP to destroy us and increase their worldwide hegemony. The CCP Virus has killed more people in the last 17 days than the entire flu season. The frightening stats are compiled here by the highly respected Mike Adams.Go to https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-04-21-coronavirus-killed-more-americans-in-last-17-days-than-regular-flu-year.html
3 years ago
65,000 dead so far and adding 2000+ a day. Still trying to pretend it isn’t deadly? Even Trump has admitted that it is.
3 years ago
SORRY BUT I DON’T BEWEEVE YOU.
3 years ago
I’ve read articles that indicate China has infiltrated these universities, so as with all info today we should not jump in with both feet just yet.
