How Many Americans Already Have Coronavirus Antibodies?

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Robert VerBruggen of The National Review, asks the key question, “How Many People Already Have COVID-19?” A much greater number than previously believed. Locking ourselves in our rooms is not the answer. One commenter best described it this way:

“In WWII we built a dozen different fighter planes in an effort to find one that could defeat a zero or an Me-109, and none really could outperform them in combat situations. (The P-51D was arguably the best fighter in the air over Europe. But, not quite useless in the pacific because it’s airframe wasn’t rugged enough for carrier based combat., etc. Solution? Make all of them, and in large numbers, and understand that some pilots are going to die because we sent them into battle in an inferior aircraft. But those brave men did it anyway. We need that courage today. Go into work if you are young and able, consume goods and services as if there were no virus. Fight the enemy knowing you might become ill, might get innocent non combatants infected in the cross fire. But here immunity cannot be achieved if it’s never allowed to happen by cowering in our bomb shelters.”

First, researchers at Stanford gave antibody tests — which detect whether someone had COVID in the past, not just whether they’re currently infected — to more than 3,000 people in Santa Clara County, Calif. (also known as Silicon Valley). Only about 3 to 4 percent had antibodies, but this suggests the county was undercounting cases by 50 to 85 times. If we’re undercounting that badly nationwide, more than 10 percent of the country could already have had the illness and gained some immunity.

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However, there are important limits here. It’s just one county, of course, and the study’s participants were not a random sample of that jurisdiction’s residents:

Our sampling strategy selected for members of Santa Clara County with access to Facebook [because that’s where they were recruited from] and a car to attend drive-through testing sites. This resulted in an overrepresentation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64, and an under-representation of Hispanic and Asian populations, relative to our community. Those imbalances were partly addressed by weighting our sample population by zip code, race, and sex to match the county. We did not account for age imbalance in our sample, and could not ascertain representativeness of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in homeless populations. Other biases, such as bias favoring individuals in good health capable of attending our testing sites, or bias favoring those with prior COVID-like illnesses seeking antibody confirmation are also possible. The overall effect of such biases is hard to ascertain.

Meanwhile, other researchers patrolled the streets of Chelsea, Mass., asking if they could take blood samples, and holy wow:

Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city.

Sixty-four residents who had a finger pricked in Bellingham Square on Tuesday and Wednesday had antibodies that the immune system makes to fight off the coronavirus, according to Massachusetts General Hospital physicians who ran the pilot study.

The 200 participants generally appeared healthy, but about half told the doctors they had had at least one symptom of COVID-19 in the past four weeks.

Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus

Mass. General researcher says the results point to a ‘raging epidemic,’ but may also indicate the city is further along the disease curve than some other municipalities

By Jonathan Saltzman, Boston Globe, April 17, 2020:

Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city.

Sixty-four residents who had a finger pricked in Bellingham Square on Tuesday and Wednesday had antibodies that the immune system makes to fight off the coronavirus, according to Massachusetts General Hospital physicians who ran the pilot study.

The 200 participants generally appeared healthy, but about half told the doctors they had had at least one symptom of COVID-19 in the past four weeks.

Public health experts already knew Chelsea had the state’s highest rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and that the actual rate was probably higher. At least 39 residents have died from the virus, and 712 had tested positive as of Tuesday, a rate of about 1,900 cases per 100,000 residents, or almost 2 percent.
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But the Mass. General researchers ― who excluded anyone who had tested positive for the virus in the standard nasal swab test ― found that 32 percent of participants have had COVID-19, and many didn’t know it.

“I think it’s both good news and bad news,” said Dr. John Iafrate, vice chairman of MGH’s pathology department and the study’s principal investigator. “The bad news is that there’s a raging epidemic in Chelsea, and many people walking on the street don’t know that they’re carrying the virus and that they may be exposing uninfected individuals in their families.”
Related: Opinion | Chelsea, city of the working Latino immigrant, emerges as a COVID-19 hotspot

“On the good-news side, it suggests that Chelsea has made its way through a good part of the epidemic,” he said. “They’re probably further along than other towns.”

Scientists suspect that people who recover from COVID-19 may be at least temporarily immune from catching it again. Several biotechs and academic laboratories, in fact, are seeking blood donations from people who have recovered, in the hopes that their antibodies can help create a treatment or vaccine.

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Chelsea’s city manager, Thomas Ambrosino, said he learned the results of the pilot study Thursday in a conference call with the researchers. He was dismayed, but not shocked.
Related: Chelsea city manager sounds urgent alarm, calls for residents to stay home 24 hours a day

“We’ve long thought that the reported numbers are vastly under-counting what the actual infection is,” said Ambrosino, who has called his city the epicenter of the crisis in Massachusetts. “Those reported numbers are based on positive COVID-19 tests, and we’re all aware that a very, very small percentage of people in Chelsea and everywhere are getting COVID-19 tests.”

“Still,” he added, “it’s kind of sobering that 30 percent of a random group of 200 people that are showing no symptoms are, in fact, infected. It’s all the more reason for everyone to be practicing physical distancing.”

Indeed, one of the doctors who tested volunteers in Bellingham Square said it’s possible that some of the people who had the antibodies are still contagious.

“Just because you have the antibodies doesn’t mean you’ve cleared the virus,” said Dr. Vivek Naranbhai, a clinical fellow in hematology and oncology.

Researchers said the test results, which had yet to be shared with state officials late Friday, couldn’t necessarily be extrapolated for the city’s roughly 40,000 residents. Still, the findings provided a valuable snapshot of a community that medical experts say is especially vulnerable to COVID-19.

Chelsea covers only about two square miles, across the Mystic River from Boston. For generations, it has attracted new immigrants, and about 65 percent of its residents are Latino. Many live in three-decker houses, Ambrosino said, where it’s hard for people to isolate themselves. Many work in the hospitality industry and health-related fields, where exposure to the virus is greater. And a lot of them must go to work during the pandemic.

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Related: What it’s like to be a Chelsea cop in the age of coronavirus

To get Chelsea residents to participate in the study ― which included a questionnaire that was available in English, Spanish, and Portuguese — investigators allowed them to remain anonymous. But that meant none of the participants received the results of the blood tests.

The doctors used a diagnostic device made by BioMedomics, of Morrisville, N.C., to analyze drops of blood. It resembled an over-the-counter pregnancy test and generated results on the street in about 10 minutes. Although the test hasn’t won the approval of the Food and Drug Administration, Iafrate, the principal investigator, said Mass. General determined it’s reliable.

Within days, the physicians said, they hope to set up a medical tent outside the Mass. General Chelsea Healthcare Center to perform more antibodies tests with the device. The site will be located near a tent set up weeks ago to run standard PCR, or polymerase chain reaction, tests for people with active coronavirus symptoms. The latter uses nasal swabs to detect whether the virus is present at the time; the antibodies blood test reveals whether someone was infected in the past.

In addition to the new testing site, the researchers want to expand the study to other Massachusetts cities and towns. For all of those studies, Mass. General doctors plan to obtain the identities of participants so physicians can provide the results. But first the researchers need to come up with guidelines for what participants should do if they test positive for antibodies.

Dr. Dean Xerras, medical director of the Mass. General Chelsea Healthcare Center and a co-investigator in the study, said it illustrates why it’s essential for Chelsea and other communities to perform more tests, regardless of whether they detect antibodies or the virus itself.

“Knowing how many people are infected is critical,” said Xerras, a longtime member of the city’s board of health. “We need to get them isolated. We need to get masks delivered to the city. We need to launch more safe isolation sites. We need to be able to identify cases and then give people the things they need to prevent perpetuation of the spread.”

Chelsea and Revere officials, with help from the state Department of Public Health and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, secured almost 150 rooms at a Quality Inn in Revere this week for residents who are recovering from COVID-19 and unable to isolate themselves at home, according to Ambrosino. So far, only a handful of those rooms are occupied.

Governor Charlie Baker on Thursday staunchly defended the state’s handling of the escalating outbreak in Chelsea, including asserting, without offering details, that city leaders have turned down help from his administration.

The governor’s claim surprised officials in Chelsea who told the Globe this week that the state, and even health care providers, should have recognized the virus’s rapid spread through the city sooner.

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RCCA
RCCA
3 years ago

Key points: “… it’s kind of sobering that 30 percent of a random group of 200 people that are showing no symptoms are, in fact, infected. It’s all the more reason for everyone to be practicing physical distancing. Indeed, one of the doctors who tested volunteers in Bellingham Square said it’s possible that some of the people who had the antibodies are still contagious. “Just because you have the antibodies doesn’t mean you’ve cleared the virus,” said Dr. Vivek Naranbhai, a clinical fellow in hematology and oncology….”

IOW there’s a very good likelihood that you will be exposed to a virulent strain of the flu to which you have zero immunity, because it’s all around and highly contagious. It’s anybody’s guess how sick you might get and if you’ve been sick whether you can get sick again. I think we’re actually back to square one.

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  RCCA

We have no intention of spending our lives in isolation. Maybe others see it differently. We are moving forward. We are not going to let speculative fear rearrange our lives to suit fear mongering control freaks. This perfect disease free world does not and has not ever existed.

RCCA
RCCA
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

I don’t think the alternatives are 1) total isolation and lock down forever or 2) throw caution to the wind. Some people want to make emotional decisions rather than rational ones. Funny how the emotional ones always assume that someone else will be the one who gets sick, they only start caring if it happens to them.

Trump has the right idea, look for the areas, counties and states, where the infection rate is very low and open up there, continue to collect data everywhere.
There’s no reason for lockdowns in places like South Dakota, for example.

We’ve come this far, we might as well play it smart for a little while longer.

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  RCCA

I can agree with keeping “hot spots” in check but who the hell knows how ACCURATE these number are when CDC guidlines require anyone who has the viris in any form have their death as the primary cause when it is not.

NJ Total infected: 81,420
NJ Total deaths:4,070

U.S. Total infected: 696,622
U.S. Total deaths: 32,494

As more accurate information comes out, more people die of the common flu than this virus. The only difference is this virus is more conatagious than the flu.

Sorry, we will not be spending our lives in islolation to make control freaks happy. We are graphing the data using those numbers and see the infection rate coming down. Eventually deaths will come down as well. THAT IS WHEN WE STOP LIVING IN FEAR and SELF ISOLATING!

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

At my local grocer, EVERYONE has been masked- except for me. THERE IS GOING TO BE A RECKONING FOR THIS!

santashandler
santashandler
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

The amount of ignorance out there regarding this, is astounding.

There was a thread the other day on my local Next Door app, where a woman posted a picture of four young adults tailgating in the parking lot of a park. Her argument/justification was, ‘why can’t they be doing what they’re doing at home, because they’re putting lives in danger.’ Really? There were many comments shaming her for taking pictures of young adults, who were doing nothing but assembling, and enjoying each other’s company. And yet, she had many supporters who agreed that these youths should be shamed, even charged because of their oh so “reckless” behavior. This is what this has come to; neighbor reporting on neighbor. It’s going to get worse.

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  santashandler

My response would have been something like, did you confuse me with someone who gives a s*** about what you think wih a big smiley face a wish for them to have a nice day!

santashandler
santashandler
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

Yes, I should have.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  santashandler

You still need to do your part. Same as me. Lucky us, ain’t we?

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Requiring isolation will take a toll on people’s MENTAL HEALTH. Suicides are going up. These are people that don’t even have the virus. So it is more of a rational reason over an emotional reason to move on and get on with your lfe and pay less mind to these idioitic purists.

We also have drugs now that have helped people over come this virus. We didn’t have them in the beginning. It’s all about CONTROLLING you. No thanks.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

Felix, I am so furious I need to keep taking deep breaths. I don’t think I’m alone and that concerns me. I’m a good guy and yet I feel like punching a dolphin. What are the bad guys out there feeling? Plesse pray for me.

santashandler
santashandler
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

Yes, it is ABSOLUTELY about control! Notice how, our governments were very quick to shut down (unprecedented in U.S. history), but now are not so quick and dragging their feet to give up that power and let everyone get back to work. Even if everything opened back up tomorrow, there would/will be extreme economic set back because of all this.

RCCA
RCCA
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

I think you are misinterpreting the cause of death stats. If someone is hospitalized because of COVID symptoms and then dies that gets counted as COVID even though they have other illnesses. The other illnesses (diabetes, etc.) didn’t put them in the hospital at the time they died, their inability to breathe because of COVID did.

santashandler
santashandler
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

THANK YOU! People are SO freaked out, rationality has literally gone out the door. Despite the fact that Influenza kills 50,000+ people in the U.S. a year and that is never reported on. But, we are to believe a virus like this warrants shutting down the entire world’s economy for?

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago

So what was stopping Asians or Hispanics from not participating? Nothing! Are anitbodies driven by RACE? Besides that, what difference does it make? It’s just another intrusion in your life pretending to care about you and jack up the infection rate to scare you into more submission and disruption. Also more personal data to sell!

Suppose we had a more sensitive test for cancer cells to be done with a finger prick. A standard test only shows when the cancer has over come your immune system and multiplied out. If you could have a more sensitive test, you would see the rate of cancer sky rocket because everyone has cancer cells in their body. If you have a strong immune system it fights them off and stops them from multiplying and mutating. Having cancer cells per se is not and of itself a crisis as long as your system is keeping it at bay.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

I feel you. We need to beat this despite the media malfeasance BECAUSE of the media malfeasance, unfortunately.

Afterwards, we WILL deal with them. There is going to be so much of a reckoning.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago

Is there someway we can be strengthening our antibodies?

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Eat properly and exercise?

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

Vitamin G. Ok.

santashandler
santashandler
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Yes. Many ways.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  santashandler

Vitamin Awesome?

santashandler
santashandler
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Yes, vitamins. Also, Oregano, Elderberry, Astragalus Root, Cat’s Claw, just to name a few that are all anti-viral herbs.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  santashandler

I’m partial to garlic. Loads of garlic. Nothing not alive seems to like it at all for some reason.

leonore35
leonore35
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

You mean nobody alive seems to like it. I expect you have few friends. The opinion among biologist about whether viruses are alive or not varies

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  leonore35

If viruses aren’t alive, how do they die exactly? If viruses are alive, can they dream of a better life? Either way, liberals are viruses and viruses are liberal.

volksnut
volksnut
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Great analogy –

volksnut
volksnut
3 years ago
Reply to  leonore35

I like it – mostly in cooking – it is a bit hard to stomach by itself if you’re eating fresh cloves as it will burn your mouth but its got some amazing health benefits –

movingwaters
movingwaters
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Me too. Around Resurrection Day every year asparagus is in season and at it’s lowest price of the year. I use a lot of garlic thrown into the last minute of cooking while replacing the water I cooked it in with olive oil. Chop up your garlic at least 15 minutes in advance so that the garlic will have time to have it’s maximum allicin content. If you don’t let garlic sit for awhile before using allicin will not develop. Plus, the garlic taste and smell is significantly enhanced by sitting.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  movingwaters

You are awesome. If there ever was a hypothetical vampire pandemic, wouldn’t the “smell” of garlic be reassuring? We’d probably end up with Garlic Fabreze.

movingwaters
movingwaters
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

You really enjoy sarcasm, don’t you? Reading several of your posts makes me wonder about your mind. If you were bothered about my detailed explanation concerning letting the potent medicinal chemical, allicin, have time to develop in preparing garlic I assure you that was for general info to the many people here who use natural methods to help their health. A lot of people don’t know you should let garlic sit for at least 10 minutes before use. If you don’t do that you miss out on most of its’ benefits. I care about the welfare of some of the people who post comments on this site; you excluded.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  movingwaters

Wow, I’m excluded? Really? I care about the welfare of everyone at every site. You must endeavor to also.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  movingwaters

Also.
1. I do love sarcasm.
2. Don’t “read several of my posts.” That’s stalkerish, frankly.
3. Have an amazing day! You not only deserve it, you probably need it, and you’re definitely worth it!

volksnut
volksnut
3 years ago
Reply to  santashandler

Try Turmeric , garlic and lots of Vitamin C

Achmed Mohandjob
Achmed Mohandjob
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

I’m sixty-six and haven’t been sick enough to visit a pill-pusher for decades. I believe I owe it all to single malt Scot’s whiskey and three packs of 555s a day. And, don’t forget to consume large quantities of pork. Although, today’s husbandry produces a much leaner meat than I prefer, it will have to do. So, add pork to the single malt Scot’s whiskey and 555 cigarettes.
Oh, and don’t forget wine and beer. Lots and lots of wine and beer.
Or, it could be venison ….. I kill a goodly number of deer … and what isn’t given away, I eat. So, venison, pork, beer, wine, single malt Scot’s whiskey and 555s. If you cannot find 555s, I suppose Dunhill Reds might suffice …. but 555 cigarettes are preferred.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago

???? you so much it almost hurts.

Achmed Mohandjob
Achmed Mohandjob
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Don’t forget the 555s. State Express 555.

leonore35
leonore35
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Apart from living a healthy life, no. IE no drugs, no junk food, no smoking, limited alcohol intake and exercising a fair amount. That seems to be beyond the majority of Americans at present

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  leonore35

Live free or die.

movingwaters
movingwaters
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Various spices and herbs have beneficial chemicals/antioxidants. Lots of Vitamin C, both water and fat soluble are proven antivirals. If I felt sick with a virus I would up my daily zinc 4 times or so over for a short time. Most of it is not all that bio-available so I would probably increase zinc to 200 mg a day for my small body for 4-5 days. Drink lots of water. Zinc is a bit hard on the kidneys, which is why you only consume a lot for the short time needed to prevent replication of the virus. Zinc has to be forced a bit into the cells to do this function. I have heard that quinine does this well. It is for sale in Canada, but not in the US. Apparently a small % of the population has trouble with quinine. There is a tiny bit in Canada Dry. Consuming some of that with you zinc would be better than nothing. I also take high quality powdered vitamins, Stinging Nettle, and other supplements every day. I also take Frontier Brand Nutritional Yeast mini flakes (Amazon) for added source of natural B vitamins. Anything you do that depletes B vitamins, such as having a beer or some wine, can be restored immediately upon ingestion by nutritional yeast. Price is very reasonable and a bag will last a long time.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  movingwaters

If you even wanted to eat a bat, where would you acquire one (outside of Wuhan)? I’m no bat expert but how the heck does anyone even get a bat to eat? The guano-encrusted ground of a cave? Who thinks eating such things are nutritious? Bats are cute, amazing, and adorable in their weird bat sort of way, but what kind of sane person says, “this would be great in soup?”
Is there such a thing as vitamin C overdose? C-surge? Asking for a friend.

movingwaters
movingwaters
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

There are bats all over the place but are generally seen only at night. I have no desire to see one, much less eat it. Vitamin C does thin your blood. I assume the water soluble C is worse for that. Best to stagger it throughout the day.

Leonard Payne
Leonard Payne
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Really, the only way to “strengthen” your antibodies is to get infected …. you can strengthen your “immune system” a number of different ways.

1PierreMontagne1
1PierreMontagne1
3 years ago

It was most likely introduced on the west coast in September as it was in Wuhan – delivered by aerosols deliberately released in crowded shopping malls . Through the warm fall it slowly worked its way east. The virus played itself out in the warm coastal weather – accounting for the unreasonably low infection rates reported from West coats states and cities. This would account for the strange 2 to 3 week lingering cold people later recalled having at Christmas. This explains why the Watchtower videos exposing the artificiality of the pandemic are removed as soon as posted on Facebook and the posters are banned for life.

leonore35
leonore35
3 years ago

There is at this point no certain opinion among the research labs across the world that people develop immunity. So all those surveys are just hearsay

leonore35
leonore35
3 years ago

There is at this point no certain opinion among the research labs across the world that people develop immunity. So all those surveys are just hearsay

knightsstrength
knightsstrength
3 years ago

Ease up the restrictions, but still peactise social dustance and keep the blockade on all enteries by air, sea and even private

Stop all teade with Xhina and stop companies advertising Chinese goods as they may bring tgem in the back door.

movingwaters
movingwaters
3 years ago

I invite correction on this statement. It is my understanding that the test being used is a general test for coronavirus; not a specific test for Covid-19. It anyone has evidence otherwise I would appreciate their sharing. Coronaviruses have been around a very, very, long time. I would assume lots of us have antibodies for that disease predating this plandemic.

Dan Roley
Dan Roley
3 years ago
Reply to  movingwaters

save all this chatter for bridge games. Americans are never going to blindly trust medical science again. ????
the Chinese own 90% of massachusetts and we know it.

*$hut down WHO..
*SELL massachusetts to. trudeau canida-caliphate..

movingwaters
movingwaters
3 years ago
Reply to  Dan Roley

I apologize for offending you with what you call my “chatter.” I don’t play bridge, and would never have time to do so. Whereas I have no fear about this virus despite my age, I believe it is important for the sake of getting the government figures more honest to know whether the so-called test is testing for coronviruses in general or specifically the bioweapon Covid-19. As for shutting down WHO and getting out of the UN, I have been on board with that for 5 decades. I just wish more Americans would stand up to the beast.

Dan Roley
Dan Roley
3 years ago
Reply to  movingwaters

good reply or is your reply a Retort.
taking yourself seriously is a 2 way street.
my work was developed by my life experiences dealing with crime. criminals.. the Basic Human Nature..
all humans are born evil .. we require firm boundaries.
your focus on med science and coronavirus is lacking power. Intentionally.
so?
my 1st Business is an african private security operation.
i ask direct qstns in effort to acquire Accurate info.. my interactions have caused my ‘ vetting’ skills to improve.

you missed my insult shot to tge core issues in coronavirus bs.
Jihad.
USA treachery ..exactly Blatant in massachusetts.
i apologize if you find my perspective offensive.

obama was born 75% kenyan..
were you?

Dan Roley
operations director
rwandaprivatesecurity
Africa Operations. 2020.

volksnut
volksnut
3 years ago

I have been sick since before Xmas – it is now finally completely going way.I never had a fever or shortness of breath just a persistent cough and sore throat for a lot of it.It would partially go away and come back again.I have NEVER been sick with any symptoms lasting more than a week or 2 thruout my life.I went to ER at the VA and they had no clue – without the other symptoms they would’nt test me for the virus.??

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