Key U.S. coronavirus death projection slashed to a fraction of original estimates, from millions to tens of thousands

Geller Report, and a handful of conservative websites, have been debunking the wildly inaccurate models and flawed projections. Time to re-open America.

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Key U.S. coronavirus death projection revised down to 60,000

By: Peter Szekely, Reuters, April 8, 2020:

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NEW YORK (Reuters) – Some 60,000 Americans could die in the coronavirus pandemic, a university model often cited by U.S. and state policymakers projected on Wednesday, a 26% reduction in its most recent forecast death toll.

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1247626705570869251

The University of Washington model’s downward revision coincides with relative optimism from political leaders that caseloads may have reached a plateau in certain areas, albeit with the U.S. death toll climbing by 1,800 on Tuesday as nearly 30,000 new infections were reported.

Even that revised forecast suggested months of pain ahead for the nation, which had recorded nearly 13,000 deaths from the new coronavirus as of Tuesday night, according to a Reuters tally of official data.

The pandemic has upended American life, with more than 90% of the population ordered to stay at home and nearly 10 million people thrown out of work in the past two weeks.

U.S. planning ways to ‘ease’ back to normal if virus efforts work: Fauci

There have been about 400,000 confirmed cases nationwide of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus, and hospitals have been inundated, resulting in shortages of medical equipment and protective garments. Hospital patients have been left to suffer alone, as loved ones are barred from visiting them.

In New York City, the outbreak’s epicenter, Mayor Bill de Blasio said mitigation efforts such as ordering all non-essential workers to remain at home “actually are starting to yield some progress,” but he warned against relaxing any restrictions too soon.

“Double down, double down, because this is finally some evidence that these strategies can work,” de Blasio told CNN. “One thing we know about it is that it’s unpredictable and it’s ferocious.”
SUNDAY PEAK PROJECTED

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is one of several that the White House task force has cited.

It now projects U.S. deaths at more than 60,000 by Aug. 4, down from the nearly 82,000 fatalities it had forecast on Tuesday.

The White House coronavirus task force has previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.

The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will begin to abate a little sooner than previously expected.

https://twitter.com/AAPSonline/status/1247666107353161728

New York’s De Blasio cautioned that the official death toll was overlooking people who die at home without seeking care.

Even so, the city has reported 3,544 deaths and 74,601 cases. Of those, 19,177 people were hospitalized. The state of New York accounts for more than a third of U.S. confirmed coronavirus cases to date, and nearly half the cumulative death toll.

“Every single measure of this pandemic is an undercount. Every. Single. One,” Mark Levine, chairman of the City Council’s health committee, wrote on Twitter. “Confirmed cases? Skewed by lack of testing. Hospitalizations? Skewed by huge # of sick people we are sending home because there’s no room in ERs. Deaths? Massive undercount because of dying at home.”

While New York is scrambling to provide care, California Governor Gavin Newsom said his state had made a breakthrough in supplies, securing a deal for 200 million medical face masks per month, mostly coveted N95 as well as surgical masks, by working through a consortia of nonprofits and a state manufacturer given the lack of equipment available from the U.S. stockpile.

“We’ve been competing against other states, against other nations, against our own federal government for PPE. … We’re not waiting around any longer,” he told MSNBC in an interview late Tuesday night. “We decided enough’s enough. Let’s use the purchasing power of the state of California as a nation state.”
FILE PHOTO: Paramedics wearing personal protective equipment transport a patient amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., April 7, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Newsom said he was confident the state would have enough personal protective equipment and could possibly export some to other states within the next few weeks.

In New York, long weeks of fighting the pandemic were taking a toll on hospital staff, some of whom are coming down with the disease they have been fighting.

One resident doctor at New York-Presbyterian Hospital said he had been surprised by the number of hospital workers infected.

“There are people around the hospital who are sick and now they’re showing up on our patient list. … It’s hard not to see yourself in them,” the resident said. “A lot of us feel like we are being put in harm’s way.”

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tituspullo

4 years ago

last week, the “doctors” fauci and byrx guaranteed, at multiple press conferences, that a minimum of 200,000 americans would die of this virus in april regardless of precautions taken. that is 7,000 corpses per day. today is april 8. we should therefore have 56,000 stiff bodies piled up across american today. obviously, these two morons were wildly wrong, and the sham that they are doctors and not deep state operatives is beyond debate now. trump needs to start putting them out in front of the press while he asks them why they are so stupid and why anyone should believe them. maybe at least one dolt in the reporter pool might then write a story about what I have posted here.

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livingengine

4 years ago

“It now projects U.S. deaths at more than 60,000 by Aug. 4, down from the nearly 82,000 fatalities it had forecast on Tuesday.”

Which puts it inline with the estimates for flu deaths.
“Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu.” https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

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Jane Dowe

4 years ago

I doubt the death toll will pass 20,000. The regular flu killed about 15,000 last year. So, the Wuhan flu is slightly worse.

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Drew the Infidel

4 years ago

Keep in mind that computer modeling is the only “proof” the gullible warming gaggle has in making their “Chicken Little” projections on how we are all going to die.

It is also what told the disastrous 2016 Hillary campaigners it wasn’t necessary for them to concentrate on Michigan or Pennsylvania.

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Roma Mikhasev

4 years ago

GLORY OF GOD!

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