[ April 17, 2024 ]
Check out the much cited and oft heralded “model” estimates of hospitalizations versus the actual hospitalization number flashed during Coumo’s daily presser midday. The gross discordance speaks for itself. And this model is much more conservative in terms of total US coronavirus deaths of ~80-84K
Also, what is the actual death rate of Coronavirus patients who did not have debilitating underlying diseases?
The media is not going to press these issues. They are going to do everything to prolong corona panic. Think about it. All Americans are being forced to stay home and watch the news. And the more dire their predictions,the more eyes.
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Is that ever going to happen for them again?
Is it ever going to be this good for them again?
Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Projected vs actual (black) ( drawn slightly roughly)
Time to make a new model pic.twitter.com/kiFBAEZIVt— Tom Goodwin (@tomfgoodwin) April 2, 2020
Dr. Andrew Bostom, MD, MS writes:
Let me make clear: I do not engage in covid19 denialism.It is a vicious virus/viral illness when it finds a vulnerable target (andthe same can be said of influenza viruses, BTW, esp. in the age before massdeployment of effective vaccination, & even occasionally in our era, when westill have “vaccine mismatches”)!However, here is what I also find unacceptable!: The most“rigorous/respected” U Wash Inst for Health Metrics covid19 “model” for NYCwas 4-fold exaggerated for hospitalizations yesterday, 4/1. (This modelhttps://covid19.healthdata.org/projections currently projects 93,531 covid19 deaths by Aug. 4th, & is now widely touted)….But see how far off thismodel was (~4-fold) on a very important basic metric yesterday, i.e.,hospitalizations for serious covid19 illness, yesterday in NYC!! Similarly,the U Wash Inst for Health Metrics covid19 “model” for my state of RhodeIsland was off by over 3-fold, on this same basic metric!Hat Tip https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson : The more “rigorous” U Wash InstFor Health Metrics model predicted 50K covid19 hospital bed occupancy forNYS today, 4/1 https://t.co/9fPnjNohbs?amp=1 ; Actual occupancy is 12,226,4-fold lessMore “rigorous” U Wash Inst For Health Metrics model predicted 200 hospitalbed covid19 occupancy for Rhode Island today, 4/1https://t.co/9fPnjNohbs?amp=1 ; actual occupancy is 60, more than 3-fold
This is the @IMHE_UW model for #Covid_19, the new US standard. It was put out SIX days ago (post lockdown). It projects New York State will have 50,000 hospitalizations TODAY. Instead NYS has 12,000. Wrong by 4x in under a week. What on earth are we doing? https://t.co/zdRwaS4UJr pic.twitter.com/bRroolmKgw
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 1, 2020
Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1245742822512381954
I can never tell what’s going to get attention. I wish this would. Let me rephrase: Oregon – a state of 4.2 million people – has shut down in order to, by ITS OWN PROJECTIONS, keep an average of two extra people a day from needing intensive care this month. https://t.co/pB0tYxGwgd
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
2/ Even more importantly, the state’s own prediction is now that it would face NO crisis even if the lockdown was lifted. By early May, all of Oregon would have ~90 people in ICU beds if all businesses reopened, as opposed to ~30 if the lockdown continued. See for yourself. pic.twitter.com/bgBSBEbeW2
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Here’s San Francisco as of tonight – 800,000 people, 434 cases, 7 deaths. Looks as though new cases peaked several days ago. https://t.co/U23HZjF3mE
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
More “rigorous” U Wash Inst For Health Metrics model predicted 200 hospital bed covid19 occupancy for Rhode Island today, 4/1 https://t.co/9fPnjNohbs; actual occupancy is 60, more than 3-fold less https://t.co/KZO2h50WaQ pic.twitter.com/lniAHz0VtR
— Andrew Bostom, MD, MS (@andrewbostom) April 2, 2020
Back to Oregon: to keep those two people a day out of intensive care, Oregon has put 200,000+ people out of work (the real number is higher, this is official claims only, 76K last week, more this week). Some are already broke. Does this seem rational? https://t.co/rILB05xCKC
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Meanwhile a fact accidentally crept into this panicked @nytimes article about LA hospitals: Cedars-Sinai, a huge tertiary care center, had 50 #COVID cases on 3/17 and 115 on 3/31. That’s an average increase of, yes, five a day. By the year 2100 it will have 140,000! pic.twitter.com/UNzWxXX1GG
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
So @CT_Bergstrom is one of the all-time panickers. Here he is suggesting the @IHME_UW model vastly *understated* the risks of #COVID. Hey Carl, now that the model has proven completely wrong in less than a week, care to give us an update? Asking for 10 million unemployed friends. https://t.co/N4SUOuPHYf
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Very informative thread. Explains why NY’s Covid 19 fatality numbers are inflated. They dont’t distinguish between those who die with the disease and those who die from it. https://t.co/Hbdud2ppSI
— Brit Hume (@brithume) April 1, 2020
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1245741085567193088
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55 Comments
4 years ago
Pamela is right, estimates are all over the map. Epidemiologists make lousy health knowledge communicators. In a university cafeteria, they can say lots of outrageous things, but the public wants clear, simple, and actionable information. Epidemiologists didn’t fix the drunk driving epidemic, the ubiquitous public health phrase, “Don’t drink and drive” did it. People had something simple and actionable, and DUIs have plummeted. “Smoking kills” was another important and simple message, with smoking rates at about 10% now.
And while Fauci and Birx slavishly follow the Italy and Spain data, South Korea keeps bucking the trend:
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Birx and Fauci are data wonks, whose data is causing another far more dangerous virus: The Economic Melt-Down Virus.
4 years ago
Reply to
eassa
Yes, they are wonks, boffins, ivory tower dwellers, not public health communicators. For example Andrew Bostom comments, aghast: “The most “rigorous/respected” U Wash Inst for Health Metrics covid19 “model” for NYC was 4-fold exaggerated for hospitalizations yesterday, 4/1.”
I look at that 4 to 1 estimation error, and think it’s pretty good, for an epidemiology study. Usually, if it’s within 1 order of magnitude [10 to 1], it’s OK. They are still trying to figure out the data for the 1918 Spanish Flu. But the public doesn’t want that. They want clear simple actionable info, that they can use right now. And if they don’t get that, then they won’t change their behavior. Why is that so hard for Fauci / Birx to understand?
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
“Why is that so hard for Fauci / Birx to understand?”
They are bureaucrats, living in a pampered world of non-reality. And their precious stats have spooked President Trump enough to abandon his instincts.
My understanding is that they are both Democrats, with Fauci declaring his adoration and loyalty to babe Hillary. World history if full of examples of Kings being betrayed by those they trusted.
To stake our nation’s economic health on flimsy and changing stats is…foolish. And that is what is happening.
4 years ago
Reply to
eassa
Yeah, but Trump has to rely on someone, and we can see that he instinctively ignores Fauci and Birx when it comes to the bottom line. They blabbed about 100k to 250k mortalities, but Trump just said that many could die, and we must take this seriously. And that is true.
It could actually be 2.2 million, and no one knows yet. Furthermore, even though 2.2M is less than 1% for the US population, and many of those mortalities would have happened within a year or two anyway, because they were pretty sick…. Well those are irrelevant points. The American people really don’t want 2.2M, or even 100k, and we need to squeeze those numbers down any way we know how. And if necessary, demote Fauci and Birx and get a better health knowledge communicator, and keep going.
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
I’d like to see both of them go too! The rumor is Trump didn’t want Brix but Ivanka did because she was a female. So Pence got the okay. This is where nepotism should not be allowed to happen under any circumstance – paid or unpaid!
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Well as dumb epidemiologists go, Brix is OK. She is pretty typical. But what they need is someone who actually knows how to communicate with the American public. Trump should not have to do that all by himself.
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
I question Pence too. At least he is a good political dancer at times with his non answers. He is soo establishment.
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
As a very conservative woman, I’m questioning the entire administration at this point! Everything they do is being done by “trial & error”! Too many hands in the cookie dough!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dorrie - Conservative
Trump’s flaw is he gives everyone a chance. He went to DC without a team he could trust so he deals with what is there. He has trouble getting anyone decent confirmed and the pipeline is stuffed with crap. It’s a tough situation.
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
She is a typical ideologue still living in the 1980/1990 lost in modeling that is inacurate.
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
I totally agree, felix!! Trump needs to keep his damn kids out of THE PEOPLE’S HOUSE!! They’re liberal Democrats and CANNOT be trusted!!
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Yes, BUT, he signed the stimulus bill, which was packed with Nazipelosi’s pork! Something he shouldn’t have done!! When he signed the FIRST stimulus bill, he said ON CAMERA, “Never Again!” Then he went about signing 4 more!! I no longer trust him! We are close to going over the cliff financially, and will NEVER recover from it, according to chief economists!!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dorrie - Conservative
Well stuff like this happened a lot in WWII. And this IS a war between species. Covid-19 is trying to destroy the human species, and we humans must fight back, just like it was an alien invasion. SO the US War Department in WWII spent lots, and wasted a bunch, and the USA GDP was 33% defense spending. But Admiral Yamamoto was right about he ‘sleeping giant’ thing, the USA military went from about 1,900 aircraft in 1939 to 155,000 in 1944, with even more in 1945. The leaders kept focused on the big picture, and ignored the small stuff. And that is what Trump is doing.
4 years ago
Reply to
Dorrie - Conservative
They had Trump against the wall and they know that. Can you imagine if Trump vetoed it? It wouldn’t be veto proof either.
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
The fact that he allowed himself to be “against the wall” is on him. He SIGNED it and shouldn’t have!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dorrie - Conservative
I disagree. Trump didn’t import this virus. It’s a strange circumstance we are in. He’s trying to save our country from a fire depression. We will get the money back one we open up again. Think about letting all these companies go under and the crisis is over. They will have no money to restart the economy. I’d rather not be like Venezuela.
There will be pent up demand. People will return back to work once they are confident it is over.
4 years ago
Reply to
Dorrie - Conservative
Our military was totally depleted. He had to make a choice. He chose the military being rebuilt. We have to be able to defend ourselves. It is true we literally had no bullets and our planes were ancient Graveyard planes were being cannibalised from plane junkyards in the desert.
The UK had ships high jacked, remember that? There was nothing they could do about it. They had depleted their military. Choices have to be made….or we could also be toothless tigers.
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Birx is ANOTHER former Clinton drooler!! Notice how she wears the same black top every day, with a different scarf over it. She’s just plain strange. It SICKENS me the way Trump allows her and Fauci to run this whole horrific pandemic!! Trump has surrounded himself with VERY liberal advisers, including Jared Kusher, his LEAD advisor, and who pushed Congress into passing the USMCA, a HORRIFIC bill for this country! Think of it as bunching North Amerca and Mexico into the One World Government! THEN Trump signed the $2.2 TRILLION bill, which was loaded with rotting pork!! $25 MILLION to the Kennedy Center, who IMMEDIATELY fired their orchestra!! WHY in the HELL did Trump sign it?! He had the power to veto it and DEMAND a clean bill, but he didn’t!! That bothers me about him!!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dorrie - Conservative
The USMCA is GOOD. It ended the end run loopholes Canada was using with Mexioc plus we gave Mexico incentive to protect our southern border. They DO have their troops there to stop the invaders as we get the wall up.. It also leveled the trade playing field. Jared really had little to do with USMCA. Others handled the negotiations on that and it worked out very well for us and Mexico and Canada. More of the manufacturing is done here and with tax incentives companies have been coming back to the U.S..
If Turmp didn’t sign it we would be heading into a recession and a guaranteed depression. As busineses close up and the crisis passes, what are they going to use for money to reopen? Few are out there buying anything now. It was the right thing to do. Yes some pork got by and the GOPis going after the 25 million for the JFK Center pork. Will they be succesful, who knows!
When you have such hostility in D.C. towards Trump, you are not going to get a clean bill. This is all out war down there. The DEMS are out to destroy Trump and our country and there is no pretense over that anymore. DEMS and neocons see this as their golden opportunity to push their left of Lenin agenda and stuf it in bills. Some will get by and other parts will not. The Green New Deal didn’t make it. The GOP doesn’t have the majority. Money has to come from Congress so compromise have to be made. Congress would be happy to see us trashed to get rid of Trump. That is how crazy they are.
4 years ago
Reply to
eassa
“Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.” Evan Esar
“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable” Dr. Laurence J. Peter
4 years ago
Reply to
"Divergent" sgthwjack ✯
I don’t think Fauci / Birx are deliberately lying about the statistics. I think they need to tell people that these are very rough guesses, and people should not use these stats to make life decisions. Trump will provide the essential messages, because he boils stuff down.
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Likely not lying, but drawing conclusions from inadequate data never stops their sort. Statistics are, at best, only an approximation of reality. Simply too many unknown and/or ignored variables.
4 years ago
Reply to
"Divergent" sgthwjack ✯
ALL of math is just one huge reality model. It’s not reality, it’s a rough copy.
4 years ago
Reply to
"Divergent" sgthwjack ✯
Timely quotes! It is pitiful that the likes of Fauci and Birx have the power to take down President Trump and the American economy like no impeachment trial could have.
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Italy and Spain are a mess. We are not in the same condition as either one. I don’t trust Fauci or Brix. Take a look at their bios. Obama put Brix in her position in 2014. Do you really think he’d put a good person in that position if they didn’t have his world view? The slobbering love letters to Hillary Clinton disturb me allot
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Yes, and South Korea is a goldmine. Click on my graph to see that the S Korean recovered patients began to rise rapidly on March 13 to 16, right when the first chloroquine study came out:
“Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550
And this sudden jump is seen in many other places, including the USA. Doctors aren’t stupid, and if they see news reports about a drug they can use right now to treat Covid-19, then they will try it, at least on the serious cases, where patients agree to try it on speculation. If that is what happened, then the massive rise in recovered [and prevented] patients may squelch the US mortalities down to small numbers. S. Korea says that’s what they did, and they have 5828 recovered patients, and only 169 fatalities.
Fauci and Birx are ignoring the recovery data.
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
Both bore me It was almost a relief not to see sleazy Fauci today at the briefing. They offer nothing new.
4 years ago
I have been suspicious about this for a while….I think Brix and Fauci are doing their part to UP the fear and do their part to take Trump down. BOTH are Democrats. BOTH associate with corrupt people and organizations. Brix closely associates WHO and the U.N. and Fauci with slobbering love letters to Hillary Clinton as well as WHO These two have been around forever.
Obama put Dr. Brix into her position on April 4, 2014. SInce when does Obama put good people in positions? She’s been involved in some good organizations and some questionable ones. She described her role as ambassador to help meet the HIV prevention and treatment targets set by Obama in 2015 to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030. On February 27, 2020, Vice President Mike Pence appointed Birx to the position of White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator. As part of this role, Birx reports to Pence on the White House Coronavirus Task Force. See for yourself -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deborah_Birx.
Her models are only as good as the assumptions input and some of them are being skewed by NY and NJ. Both states are being swallowed up by the virus. Using NY and NJ as a sort of baseline skews other states to be on the high side. Plus hospitals are being told to report it as a virus death even if it was something else that ended their life. They are being told to err on the safe side.
Dr. Fauci’s bio is here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci The New York Times called Fauci “the nation’s leading expert on infectious diseases”. That should frighten you! In 1984, he became Director of NIAID, a position which he is still holding in 2020. He has been at the forefront on research and observation for HIV, SARS, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, MERS, Ebola now the coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Notice there are no cures for any of them. This has been going on for AIDs since the early 1990’s. Why are there no results? Look how quickly the private sector is coming up with using existing drugs and being innovative with drugs and medical supplies for the virus. All Fauci seems to do is dream about vaccines and jump in to rephrase what Brix says.
Trump has done what he can do by going around both and fast tracking drugs through Right to Try and the FDA. that have potential.
I also wonder if Turmp is giving them enough rope to hang themselves with their agenda of doom gloom and hopelessness. I have to wonder why Fauci and Brix keep naysaying innovative drugs that are popping up. People’s lives are depending on them!
4 years ago
Reply to
Watchers
Wikipedia always praises the LEFT. At least Wikipedia is good for something… Conrast that with how Wikipedia describes a conservative.
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Since he is the nations leading expert on infectious diseases….then he himself has already said that the fatality rate of Covid 19 has a fatality rate of just 0.1% in this article that he wrote in the New England Journal of medicine released March 26, 2020.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
I was at the large V.A. facility in Phoenix, AZ last night and was told that they had ZERO Covid 19 patients inside and that things are very slow there.
Please read this article from Falsey and send it to everyone you know.
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
That has been Trumps general method in the past …. let someone run it up …. and right off the cliff.
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
I believe you’re RIGHT, Felix! Both of them were big Hillary supporters!! ALL of Trumps advisors are leftwing people, including his HEAD adviser – his stinking liberal son-in-law Kusher! Kushner pushed Congress to pass the USMCA bill, uniting Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, much like the EU!! Creating another path to One World Government!!
4 years ago
This whole thing is an overblown hoax. We are seeing mass stupid on a global scale. The numbers haven’t added up from the beginning.
Published in 1981
4 years ago
No wonder the IHME is screwed up!
IHME which is 100% funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Throw in the fact that 80% of the deaths reported to the CDC are people over 80 years old with a terminal illness already like lung cancer, liver cancer, pancreatic cancer, heart failure and COPD. Why doesn’t Fauci and Brix tell President Trump that most of the deaths being reported are people already at death’s door step!
Gates Foundation Awards $279 Million for Health Metrics, Evaluation
JANUARY 26, 2017
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has announced a ten-year, $279 million commitment in support of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
…
“IHME provides critical data about global health trends that can empower policy makers worldwide to identify better solutions in the fight against disease,” said Gates Foundation co-chair Bill Gates.
…
https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/news/gates-foundation-awards-279-million-for-health-metrics-evaluation
4 years ago
No wonder the IHME is screwed up!
IHME which is 100% funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Throw in the fact that 80% of the deaths reported to the CDC are people over 80 years old with a terminal illness already like lung cancer, liver cancer, pancreatic cancer, heart failure and COPD. Why doesn’t Fauci and Brix tell President Trump that most of the deaths being reported are people already at death’s door step!
Gates Foundation Awards $279 Million for Health Metrics, Evaluation
JANUARY 26, 2017
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has announced a ten-year, $279 million commitment in support of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
…
“IHME provides critical data about global health trends that can empower policy makers worldwide to identify better solutions in the fight against disease,” said Gates Foundation co-chair Bill Gates.
…
https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/news/gates-foundation-awards-279-million-for-health-metrics-evaluation
4 years ago
Because without the hysteria, people would NOT have followed instructions & we Would have a problem. Besides they are going by the last pandemics, which were horrible, knowing they wouldnt let it slide like they did with Obama. & other reasons.
4 years ago
It sounds Ike they hired the same people who made the computer models for “climate change”. Feed junk in, get junk out.
4 years ago
I never could imagined a disease that would destroy an economy so easily! This is beyond comprehending, unless viewing it from the Left’s perspective of hatred and focus on taking Trump out! Destroy, especially, small businesses and pass a spending bill so huge there is no way of ever keeping the dollar strong! As well, controlling the population through mandatory mass vaccination, which will probably contain biometric tracking! Voila!! Dream come true for the NWO, as the whole world is implicated!
4 years ago
4 years ago
Reply to
Steve Saaf
We THOUGHT he was in the beginning. Now I have strong doubts about that.
4 years ago
As a scientist, I can tell you, for an absolute fact, that a model will do EXACTLY what it is designed to do – no more, no less.
Here’s a fun project for you to try …. go to the hobby store, buy a model of a P-51 Mustang … now …. build an aircraft carrier out of that model.
4 years ago
Another thing regarding Oregon (where I live), the PHARMACY ASSOC has made a rule to NOT allow doctors to prescribe the medication Hydroxychloroquine unless the sick person is IN THE HOSPITAL!! Rather than allowing it BEFORE the need to be hospitalized! INSANE!! The medication costs about 10 cents per pill!!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dorrie - Conservative
That is because Trump said that it might work.
Now, Trump should tell democrats not to jump off the cliff to make them jump off the cliff. Trump Power!
4 years ago
Still hoping for a miracle, I see.
4 years ago
Kung Flu computer models are inaccurate, just as “Climate Change” computer models are inaccurate.
4 years ago
.
If these pundits spent half as much time talking about the recovery of those affected, (and advances in finding a cure), instead of focusing on mortality and all the grim-reaper aspects of this pandemic, it would probably be over by now.
.
no comment needed – it was simply rhetorical …
.
3 years ago
Deaths up to almost 70,000, according to Trump Administration, and Trump Administration has updated projected deaths (as states reopen) to be 120,000+. Are they lying? Is it really so hard to understand that projections can go up or down, perhaps by a lot, as hot spots appear and social distancing/stay at home orders are rescinded?
