Reps. Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen spoke at length with the longtime Baltimore pol about their intentions to run for the seat days before either officially announced an intention to run, sources familiar with the conversations said.

It was a calculated move to win over one of the most influential politicians in the state. There’s only one problem: Cummings himself appears to be on the verge of running.

A senior lawmaker able to excite his state’s massive African-American voting bloc, Cummings could be an instant force as a Senate candidate — and those close to him think there’s a high probability that he will run. His statewide name ID, strong Baltimore base and prominence as a national African-American leader could vault him to the top of the field — ahead of Van Hollen, Edwards and any of the handful of other Democrats eyeing the race.

“It does appear as though he probably has a strong proclivity to running,” said a source with deep ties in Maryland politics. “This is an opportunity that — who knows when it will come around again for a minority, much less an African-American? It’s a momentous opportunity for someone with his story.”

The source said Cummings has told allies he wants to run, but that he’s worried about how much there is to lose — most prominently, his powerful voice to serve as a national counterbalance to Republicans as the ranking Democrat on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and Committee on Benghazi, both of which are spearheading numerous investigations into the Obama White House.

“It’s a risk analysis right now,” the source said.

Even if he doesn’t run, Cummings commands a major base of support and could play kingmaker in the Democratic primary for a Senate seat that hasn’t been open since 1987.

Cummings is quietly testing the waters, however. He’s made calls to former colleagues in the Maryland General Assembly and Democratic leaders throughout the state — and he’s put a poll in the field to test his standing in what will be a bitter and crowded primary fight.

“Mr. Cummings is senior to both of them and probably has better statewide recognition,” said a senior Democratic operative who has also worked in Maryland politics. “As it stands today, I would not be surprised at all if he gets in.”

Cummings could also lay claim to his base in Baltimore City; though the Democratic power center in the state has shifted south in recent years, Van Hollen and Edwards might end up splitting the D.C.-suburban vote in a three-way contest.

Still, Cummings would face some serious challenges if he runs. Despite his perch on the Oversight and Benghazi committees in the House, Cummings has never been a prolific fundraiser. He raised just slightly more than $250,000 for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last cycle and has $890,000 cash on hand. That’s roughly half of Van Hollen’s $1.7 million war chest, but far more than Edwards’ paltry $30,000.

Van Hollen, a top fundraiser for Democrats, also forked over close to $1.5 million to the DCCC for the 2014 midterm elections. All three members represent safe House seats that aren’t competitive in general elections.

But Cummings’ status as an African-American leader could help offset his fundraising weaknesses. Democrats have called on Cummings for decades to whip support for statewide candidates in areas with a high concentration of African-Americans, and his get-out-the-vote operation is highly regarded by candidates throughout Maryland.

Before running for Congress, Cummings spent 14 years in the state House and eventually rose to the position of speaker pro tem — the first African-American to serve in that role. Those connections with local leaders could prove invaluable during a contested primary battle, allies say.

“I don’t think that’s something that can be discounted. The more I talk to people across the state, and even one of his colleagues told me that he thinks Cummings is the person with the best statewide profile right now,” the Maryland operative said.

Van Hollen also served in the General Assembly from 1991 to 2003, four years in the state House with Cummings and eight in the state Senate.

There is a concern among some advocates for the African-American community that a Cummings Senate bid would force black leaders in Maryland to pick sides, a move some worry could split the constituency and dilute its influence. African-Americans made up 37 percent of Democratic primary voters in 2008, the last year exit pollsters surveyed the electorate.

Edwards is widely considered an up-and-coming member who has consistently advanced in the Democratic ranks since 2008, when she defeated then-Rep. Albert Wynn in a Democratic primary. And she represents Prince George’s County — the second-most populous area in Maryland and the wealthiest majority-black county in the U.S.

Though Edwards begins the race with a significant financial disadvantage, she likely will pull in lots of campaign cash and support from progressive groups, which took credit this week for drafting her into the race.

Mike McKay, a former staffer for Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) and lobbyist with Empire Consulting Group, said Cummings would be a “major force” if he decides to enter the contest.

“Cummings would be a game changer in the race,” said McKay, who serves on the board of the Congressional Black Caucus’ PAC. “I expect if Congressman Cummings gets in the race, he will win Prince George’s County.”

If Cummings stays out of the race, the other candidates — Reps. John Delaney and John Sarbanes, along with Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, who are also considering joining Van Hollen and Edwards in the field — would try to secure his endorsement. Sources close to the Cummings, Edwards and Van Hollen camps said there won’t likely be much outreach on securing an endorsement until the final lineup shakes out. But a senior congressional aide familiar with CBC dynamics said it isn’t immediately clear that Cummings would back Edwards, a fellow black caucus member.

“I honestly believe Congressman Cummings stays neutral throughout the primary. Rep. Edwards does not have enough support in the CBC to push members to go to the mat for her and ask Cummings to endorse her in the primary. At least not right now,” the aide said.

CBC members generally back each other in most primary and general election battles. But Cummings and Van Hollen have a warm relationship that could preempt any big endorsement for Edwards — or at least stop Cummings from hitting the pavement hard for his CBC colleague if he does back her in the primary fight.

Already, the battle for endorsements in a race that is less than 2 weeks old is fierce. Van Hollen has trotted out a series of high-profile endorsements from Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and the entire Montgomery County Council, including Craig Rice, the council’s only African-American legislator.

Angela Rye, a former executive director of the CBC, said Reid’s endorsement won’t matter much to Maryland residents, especially if Cummings runs.

“I don’t know that a Sen. Reid endorsement, particularly this early, sways what happens in the primary or in the general,” she said. “If Elijah Cummings gets in the race, I don’t think that you’re just dealing with someone who would have a tremendous amount of sway with Maryland, but with the country.”